investmenttheory
ValueWalk
ValueWalk
ValueWalk
ValueWalk
ValueWalk
ValueWalk
ValueWalk
I was on a walk with a friend the other day and he asked me what is the strongest argument that I can make in opposition to Valuation-Informed Indexing. The first thing that came to mind is that the first true research-based strategy has not performed well in recent years. Shiller’s WarningIn 1996, Shiller published a paper warning that investors who failed to lower their stock allocations in response to the crazy valuation levels of that time would live to regret it within 10 years. We did not see a price crash for 12 years. So Shiller was a bit off. He had come up with the 10-year figure by ...
ValueWalk
There’s a price to be paid for lowering your stock allocation; stocks generally pay higher returns than other asset classes. So, if prices remain sky-high longer than they ever have in the past, the Valuation-Informed Indexer may find himself stuck earning a lower return for longer than he expected. I believe that the Buy-and-Holders exaggerate the extent to which this is a reality. But I believe that it really is a reality to some extent. I would like to see research examining the question. Examining Stock Investing QuestionsWhat asset class is the best alternative to stocks? The Buy-and-Hold...
ValueWalk
Do the Buy-and-Holders believe in Buy-and-Hold? Yes and no. I believe that they follow the strategy themselves. This would be a pure scam if it were a situation where the Buy-and-Holders were discouraging others from engaging in market timing but happily protecting their own retirement accounts all the while. I don’t believe that that’s the case. My sense is that the Buy-and-Holders occasionally make exceptions to the dogmas for themselves without telling others that they are doing so but as a general rule refrain from market timing themselves. I do not possess perfect confidence on this point...
ValueWalk
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