stockpricechanges
I am a big believer in market timing. My view is that it is through market timing that investors practice price discipline when buying stocks. Which is absolutely critical. Price discipline is what makes markets work. In the event that valuations affect long-term returns (as Shiller has shown is the case), investors must practice market timing to have any hope of keeping their risk profile constant over time. Market timing is a good thing, no matter what the Buy-and-Holders say.Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and moreStock Market TimingBut the Buy-and-Holders have been successful in cr...
ValueWalk
The old way of thinking about the stock market is that it is economic developments that cause price changes. Investors change their assessment of what stocks are worth as new information about future economic developments becomes available to them.Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and moreBut Shiller showed that investors are not entirely rational but at times highly emotional. Irrational exuberance and irrational depression greatly influence their assessments of what stocks are worth. At times like today, when the CAPE value is at two times the fair-price CAPE value, only half of the va...
ValueWalk
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