Is Shiller Losing Confidence in His Own Research?
I believe that Robert Shiller is gradually losing confidence in his own research. He still has confidence in the findings. The findings are rock-solid and there is no reason to doubt them. But what really matters are the how-to implications of the research — what should investors be doing differently because of Shiller’s finding that valuations affect long-term returns? Shiller has made several statements in recent months indicating that he is pulling back from an expansive understanding of the significance of his work. Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Timing The Market With Th...
I Like Cash Because I Like Stocks
Cash is at one side of the risk/reward spectrum of investment possibilities. Stocks are at the other end of the spectrum. Stocks are risky but offer great returns. Cash is safe but offers poor returns. Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Right? Stocks vs Cash: Returns And RisksI don’t think that’s quite right. I of course understand that there is a general truth in thinking of stocks as riskier than cash and in thinking of stocks as offering greater returns than cash. But, as is so of every other strategic question in stock investing, Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research showing...