gold
ValueWalk
ValueWalk
10y tested the top at 4.33%, and retreated back to the 4.23% support – but S&P 500 kept declining yesterday. The dollar and real assets were though less determined to move correspondingly, which means that stocks may hold up better today than the 4,365 (another suppozt zone, its upper border) hints at, equals we wouldn‘t get orderly selling continuation or acceleration into a crash till the closing bell. At the same time, this data light day won‘t be a genuinely VIX crush Friday one – the buyers can reasonably target 4,390 at best. The warning sign is accelerating decline in XLK below $166.50 ...
ValueWalk
If anything, 10y proved it doesn‘t want to top yet at 4.28%, and all the relief rallies in S&P 500 and Nasdaq failed. Orderly day of selling is the proper conclusion when looking at the daily chart, with stocks having to go a bit lower, and 4,385 support may not be the end of it. 4,410 is a weak daily support only, and depending on whether long-dated yields stage a fakeout (10y markedly above 4.33%) and how long it holds before retreating on the no recession storyline being proven wrong by deteriorating economic data – today‘s unemployment claims and Philly Fed manufacturing mark good opportun...
ValueWalk
S&P 500 made that tech driven upswing I cautioned you yesterday about, only to keep declining overnight in preparation for retail sales and Emire State manufacturing data. I don‘t see them as derailing the soft landing story, but the volatility made for good latest Intraday Signals results. As the tech daily gyrations (varied sensitivity to yields move and absolute level) persist, keep in mind that yields (chiefly at the longer end of the curve as opposed to 3m or 6m) are in the driver‘s seat. Today‘s article introduction would be brief in favor of the individual markets talk, and especially l...
ValueWalk
PPI above expectations – 0.3% as I predicted – made stocks move higher only to give up all premarket gains, and some. Rotations didn‘t disappoint me – they were weak. What was disappointing, is that the downswing didn‘t gather steam or proceed with nary a setback – instead, stocks were chopping during much of the day, and closed perplexingly on a brighter note, which might not be without consequences as the chart section shows. The fact through remains that correction goes on, especially following the swift rejection of CPI spike, which also stopped bond yields retreating and instead made them...
ValueWalk
In theory, nothing changed for the precious metals market yesterday, but in reality, it was the opposite, thanks to the signs from the USDX and stocks. Let’s start with the latter. We just saw a combination of verification of the breakdown below the rising support line and an intraday reversal. Both are bearish developments, and their combination indicates that lower – likely much lower – stock market prices are to be expected. For now, stocks are still at their 50-day moving average and their June highs, but once these support levels are broken, the fall is likely to be substantial. Why? Beca...
ValueWalk
Yesterday‘s S&P 500 downswing didn‘t last even though the sellers came back strongly before the day was over. Bonds though have recovered, 10y yield is sitting at 4% – the interest rate sensitive sectors (and prior leaders mentioned in the stock market chart) didn‘t take the cue, and are doing so only now premarket. EURUSD is up, yields still at bay, gold and silver retracing some of yesterday‘s decline while oil and natgas are little changed – looks to me as a pause in the risk-off positioning (positioning for hotter than expected CPI, hotter than 3.3% or even what I see as a bit likelier, 3....
ValueWalk
Another day, another decline in the junior miners. That’s the new reality. And with just a small push, the waterfall selling will start. Why? For instance, because of the head-and-shoulders pattern that is about to be completed. The rising, red support line was broken, and the breakdown was verified last month, so it’s already quite clear that the next big move is to the downside. There is, however, another support line (marked with blue) that is particularly important at this time. This blue line is not important just on its own but because it’s part of a bigger pattern called “head and shoul...
ValueWalk
What a difference 24h can make, huh? Gold rallied visibly on Monday, only to give it back on Tuesday. Same with miners. What’s next? Exactly the same thing that was likely before yesterday’s session. One of the things that indicated that decline was silver’s outperformance – this indication rarely fails to deliver. It’s surprising for those, who are new to the silver market, but it’s true – the white metal tends to fake strength relative to gold right before the entire sector turns south. We saw that once again. That was fake strength. Fake weakness was what we recently saw in the USD Index. A...
ValueWalk
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