instituteforthestudyofwar
Russian forces are unlikely to achieve "operationally significant penetration" in the area west of Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast, despite limited Ukrainian troop withdrawals in surrounding villages, the U.S.-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed on April 28. Amid intense fighting, Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi announced on April 28 that Ukrainian troops retreated west from the villages of Berdychi, Semenivka, and Novomykhailivka, west of occupied Avdiivka. Earlier in the day, Syrskyi said that Ukraine will conduct unit rotationstargeting t...
Kyiv Independent (CA)
Russian forces and Kremlin propagandists are conducting a combined effort to destroy the city of Kharkiv and cause a mass exodus of civilians, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on April 22. Moscow has recently intensified attacks against Kharkiv using missiles, glide bombs, and drones to destroy infrastructure and kill civilians. These are being combined with information operations designed to sow "outsized panic" among the population while fuelling rumors of an impending Russian ground offensive to take the city, the ISW said. "The Kremlin is conducting a concerted air and inf...
Kyiv Independent (CA)
Despite indications that Russia is planning a renewed summer offensive, Ukraine will likely be able to curtail the effects of the renewed offensive if anticipated U.S. military aid arrives promptly, the U.S.-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed on April 21. Although the ISW expects Russia's intensified attacks will continue in the coming weeks ahead of the anticipated arrival of resumed U.S. military aid, the ISW notes that the anticipated military aid for Ukraine must be delivered quickly to quell the expected offensive. "Russian forces will likely intensify ongoing ...
Kyiv Independent (CA)
In response to limited raids from Ukrainian territory into Russian border regions, the Kremlin may have to choose between paying a cost in resources or in reputation, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed in their daily report on March 14. In recent days, multiple pro-Ukrainian military units comprised of Russian citizens have crossed into Belgorod and Kursk oblasts. The Freedom of Russia Legion and Siberian Battalion conducted combat operations, taking control of Tyotkino, in Russia's Kursk Oblast, and Lozovaya Rudka, in Belgorod Oblast. Oleksii Baranovskyi, a fighter with the Fre...
Kyiv Independent (CA)
Ukraine’s ammunition shortage caused by delays in U.S. aid could soon lead to a Russian breakthrough on the front lines, a sobering assessment from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said. In its latest report on March 13, the ISW highlighted that Ukraine is being forced to ration critical ammunition – in particular, artillery shells – and prioritize allocation based on those areas currently facing the most intense Russian attacks. With Moscow’s forces currently holding the initiative in the war and being able to determine the “time, location, and scale of offensive operations,” this...
Kyiv Independent (CA)
The Kremlin has yet to signal an immediate route for escalation following the appeal of lawmakers in the Russian-controlled Moldovan region of Transnistria, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its latest assessment. On Feb. 28, lawmakers in Transnistria have asked Putin to protect their region from what they claim are threats from Moldova’s government. No country officially recognizes Transnistria, where Russia has kept a steadily dwindling military presence for decades, now standing at around 1,500 troops. The Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry said in response to the Transnistrian...
Kyiv Independent (CA)
Russian forces have regained the strategic initiative in Ukraine and will be able to pursue offensive operations in 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in its Feb. 26 report. President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Feb. 25 that the Russian military was preparing to launch a new offensive in the spring or early summer of this year. The ISW affirmed this assessment, noting Russia's recent battlefield gains and the disappointments of Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive. "Russian forces have regained the theater-wide initiative and will be able to pursue offensive operations when and whe...
Kyiv Independent (CA)
The situation in Ukraine on the second anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion remains "grave, but it is far from hopeless," the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its Feb. 24 report. Ukraine on Feb. 24 entered its third year of Russia's all-out war facing ammunition shortages and uncertainties over U.S. military aid, as well as persistent resolve to keep fighting Russian aggression. ISW analysts said that Russia has made recent gains, but at a steep cost. "Russian forces have regained the initiative across the theater and are attacking and making gains," the ISW said. "Those gai...
Kyiv Independent (CA)
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev echoed Soviet leader Joseph Stalin in his threats against Ukrainians in Russian-occupied territories, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in its Feb. 22 report. Medvedev, now the deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, said in an interview with Russian media on Feb. 22 that Ukrainian citizens in occupied Ukraine who attempt sabotage against Russia should be "exposed and punished, sent to Siberia ... for re-education in forced labor camps." "Medvedev’s usage of Stalin-era purge rhetoric is significant," the ISW said. Stalin's regime infa...
Kyiv Independent (CA)
Ukraine's Southern Operational Command denied Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu's claim that the village of Krynky in Kherson Oblast had been captured by Russia on Feb. 20. "Russian forces, having failed in their assault operations on the left bank of Kherson Oblast, have resorted to manipulation and falsification of facts," the statement shared to social media by the Operational Command read. In an interview with Russian state news agency Tass on Tuesday, Shoigu claimed that Russian forces "mopped up" Krynky en route to capturing a foothold on the left bank of the Dnipro river. Ukraine's...
Kyiv Independent (CA)
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