nasdaqtlt
Last week’s excessive CPI print marked the top of the S&P 500 for the week. As the market continues to digest the data, where is the breaking point for inflation and interest rates? [soros] Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Did you watch Fed Chair Powell testify in front of the Senate and House last week? It seemed to be like watching certain angry congresspeople calling for interest rates to be kept lower for longer. Do they want hyperinflation? Other groups of Senators reflected on what the inflationary environment was like in the early 1980s. As Chair Powell testified, bonds ...
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Since the big CPI and PPI prints earlier this week, markets have been trying to figure out direction and sentiment. What will be the outcome of continued higher inflation prints? Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Capital markets seem to be a bit confused as to what to do next. As Federal Reserve Chair Powell testified in front of House and Senate committees over the last two days, there doesn’t seem to be any additional clarity in my eyes. Higher Inflation ReadingsI wanted to wait until the Fed’s 2-day testimony concluded before publishing today’s opinion piece to gain any addit...
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Today’s CPI release is in focus as inflation doubles expectations. Tech is leading in morning trade today in New York. [soros] Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Bank earnings were strong this morning; with JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS) having big beats versus analyst expectations. These strong earnings results are being overshadowed mid-session with yet another giant print in CPI data. Giant CPI Data PrintThis morning, the market consensus was for a CPI print of 0.5%, but yet again, we got a huge number at 0.9%. This level is the highest since 2008 and has seemed ...
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It is the start of earnings season for US equities, with major banks reporting this week. Let’s see how bank earnings pair up with the much anticipated CPI data on Tuesday morning. Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Q2 Earnings Season Starts Off With BanksAfter last week’s sudden Thursday dip and subsequent rebound on Friday to close at all-time highs in the $SPX, I hope the weekend has you feeling relaxed and rejuvenated. I say that because this week could provide some elements of fireworks; given the economic data on tap and the beginning of the Q2 earnings season. The Banks. I...
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The US Federal Reserve has raised its interest rate guidance for 2023; and potentially late 2022. Oddly enough, interest rates have moved lower since the last Fed meeting. Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more I see an opportunity today. Logic Doesn’t Always WorkYou would think that the higher interest rate guidance would have created a bump higher in the $TNX (Ten-Year Note Yield). However, wouldn’t that make too much sense? The more trading experience I have gotten over the last two decades, the clearer it is, that logic doesn’t always work - unless you are early enough. If you ha...
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Given yesterday’s headlines with Bitcoin plunging, did you take a peek at interest rates? Could a stronger dollar lie ahead with higher rates? Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more 10-Year Treasury Yields RiseWhile everybody’s eyes are peeled on cryptocurrencies and a crowded short DXY trade, let’s revisit the potentially polar opposite of a crypto instrument: 10-year notes. Yields rose on Wednesday, settling at 1.683%, just off the intraday high of 1.692%. I like to take a look when few others are looking. As yields closed near the highs of the day, with other risk assets seeming o...
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Many factors affect the gold price, but Treasury yields have been the one factor that’s been weighing more heavily than the others of late. Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee doubled down on its dovish stance, boosting gold prices as a result. Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The FOMC said it would allow inflation to run above its 2% target for an extended period, which weighed on the U.S. dollar. The dollar is generally negatively correlated with gold prices, so at first, the news was good for the yellow metal. However, Treasury yields have continued to rise in the d...
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