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People don’t question that this is so. Even confirmed Buy-and-Holders do not question it. They should. If they accept that reversion to the mean exists, then they should accept that market timing is required. The one thing follows from the other. Do Stock Prices Revert To The Mean?The widespread belief that stock prices revert to the mean is not intuitive. Most people believe that the market sets stock prices through a rational process, that all of the economic developments of the day are taken into consideration by millions of investors and that prices are recalibrated and set in their new pr...
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Think what it means for irrational exuberance to be a real phenomenon, as Robert Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research shows to be the case. Before Shiller, many economists believed that the market is efficient. That would mean that investors act rationally in pursuit of their self-interest and thereby insure that the market always gets prices right. Shiller showed that that is not so. Investors are not rational! The market is not efficient! Prices are not right! Q4 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Pushing Stock Prices HigherInvestors must be at least somewhat rational. If they w...
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Buy-and-Holders don’t just disdain market timing. They have promoted a false description of what it is. Most investors properly have a negative reaction to the false image. So they reject the market timing concept without ever having actually examined it in a realistic way. What It Means To Practice Market TimingIf you asked most investors what it means to practice market timing, they would say that it means taking guesses as to when stock prices will move up or down and changing your stock allocation to profit from those changes. It sounds silly. It sounds like a parlor game. People think of ...
ValueWalk
Say that you were studying for a Ph.D. in history. Over a number of years, your knowledge of the subject would increase. Week by week, month by month, year by year, you would come to know more. Your knowledge level would not charge forward in sudden, explosive bursts. You would slowly but surely accumulate additional knowledge. The advances would be orderly and measured and consistent and reliable. Q1 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more That’s how logical, rational advances operate. That’s how stock market prices would operate if the market really were efficient, as the Buy-and-Holde...
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For weekend reading, Louis Navellier offers the following commentary: Q4 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more There are so many opinions about the Fed that you could pave a highway of paper to the moon and back with views, pro and con, about the impact that raising interest rates might have on various markets this year, but seldom do I see anyone going back to the last few rate-raising cycles to show us what happened. Upfront, here is a capsule summary of what I see from the historical record of the last 30 years: 1. The only weak outcome is when the Fed raises interest rates without ...
ValueWalk
Markets set prices. That’s what they do. Information comes in, it is processed by the market participants and a new price is established. So, if there is an oil shortage, demand for the oil that exists increases and the price of oil goes up. The new price is the right price for oil given the new circumstances that apply. Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more With most markets, new information causes new prices in not too long a time. If an oil shortage appears in the morning, a new price for oil applies that evening. Market participants do not want to be caught trading oil based on ...
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Capital.com: With all the excitement centred in stocks and oil this week, other markets look a little pedestrian by comparison [soros] Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Markets Recover From A Shaky Start23 July 2021 – David Jones, Chief Market Strategist at European investment trading platform Capital.com, said: “Stock markets got off to a shaky start this week, to say the least. In the US on Monday, the benchmark Dow Jones Index suffered its largest one-day sell-off for the year so far, finishing more than 700 points lower. This was put down to worries about the delta variant o...
ValueWalk
From the peak in 2018, US Corporate average sales-growth has fallen from 13.5% to the current annual rate of 5.4%. Fifty percent of companies, accounting for 65% of market capital, are achieving an improvement in sales-growth. At the low point in the second quarter of last year, only 25% of companies, accounting for 40% of market capital, recorded an increase in sales-growth. [soros] Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more This is a broadsales-growth improvement and illustrates that top-line sales-growth for large companies were better than small companies. Big Versus SmallOver this p...
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