If anything, 10y proved it doesn‘t want to top yet at 4.28%, and all the relief rallies in S&P 500 and Nasdaq failed. Orderly day of selling is the proper conclusion when looking at the daily chart, with stocks having to go a bit lower, and 4,385 support may not be the end of it.
4,410 is a weak daily support only, and depending on whether long-dated yields stage a fakeout (10y markedly above 4.33%) and how long it holds before retreating on the no recession storyline being proven wrong by deteriorating economic data – today‘s unemployment claims and Philly Fed manufacturing mark good opportunities to show that while the real economy isn‘t crashing, it‘s not reaching escape velocity either as the proponents of “things whill sharply start turning better after the first 7+ months of 2023“ think.
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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 3 of them.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook
4,460 resistance is to hold today – the bulls don‘t stand a chance of a lasting reversal above that level. Probably my 4,435 – 4,440 would hold as well as stocks would be grappling with still high and slightly rising yields (most trouble relatively speaking today for XLK, XLC and XLY). The sellers have the tactical advantage as market breadth continues deteriorating with a nary a reprieve..
Gold, Silver and Miners
Gold took a dive late yesterday, a faster one than yields did. Of course a $5 – $10 washout isn‘t a real washout, but that $1,919 in Dec gold or $1,890 in XAUSUD may be it – especially if yields truly fail to stun in rising further (i.e. the 10y doesn‘t make it make above 4.33%. Thus far though miners haven‘t kicked in, let alone stabilized, which makes any bottom calls tentative.
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