The reported death of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is unlikely to spark mass protests across the country, the Russian independent outlet Meduza reported on Feb. 16, citing four Russian official sources.
Navalny's death may have a negative impact on dictator Vladimir Putin's electoral campaign ahead of this year's presidential vote but is unlikely to affect the actual result, according to two sources close to Putin's administration, one source close to the United Russia party, and a political strategist working for the Kremlin.
Meduza noted that some of their sources spoke cynically about the oppositionist's demise, saying he "understood what he was getting into when returning to Russia." They explained his death by poor prison conditions, insisting it was not a targeted killing.
Another source told the outlet that Navalny's prison conditions were contingent on decisions by Russia's top leadership.
Navalny had reportedly faced extensive abuse during his imprisonment, and several Russian doctors sent an open letter to Putin in January demanding proper medical access to the oppositionist, saying he suffered from a "temperature, fever, and cough."
Russian media reported on Feb. 16 that Russian opposition leader Navalny died in prison. Navalny was being held in a penal colony in Russia's far northern Yamal-Nenets Autonomous District.
According to the prison service, Navalny supposedly lost consciousness and could not be revived.
The penal colony that Navalny was held in is located in a remote settlement north of the Arctic Circle, with "tough conditions" and limited access to letter delivery, according to Zhdanov, the head of the Anti-Corruption Foundation established by Navalny.
Navalny was previously held in the IK-6 Melekhovo high-security prison in Russia's Vladimir Oblast.
Navalny had been serving a 2.5-year prison sentence since 2021 and a separate 9-year sentence on fraud charges since 2022.
A Russian court also sentenced Navalny to 19 years in a maximum security prison in August 2023 on extremism charges for creating the Anti-Corruption Foundation.
All these cases have been recognized as politically motivated and fabricated by international human rights organizations and governments.
Navalny was poisoned in Russia in 2020 and flown for treatment in Germany. German doctors said he had been poisoned with a Novichok nerve agent — a chemical weapon produced by the Russian government.
The Insider, Bellingcat, CNN, and Der Spiegel published an investigation according to which Navalny had been poisoned by agents of Russia’s Federal Security Service. They also identified the agents' names.