A session of Pakistan’s National Assembly is in progress. February 1, 2024. Image by Ramna Saeed. Used with permission.
The 2024 General Elections have plunged Pakistan into political turmoil. Amidst protests alleging rigging, the official results surprised many. While independent candidates loyal to imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan‘s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) secured the most seats (93 out of 253), they failed to win a majority.
The Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz)) and Pakistan People's Party (PPP), along with several independent candidates, have formed a coalition government despite winning fewer seats than the PTI-backed candidates. The PTI has chosen to lead the opposition, forming an alliance with the Sunni Ittehad Council, a political alliance of different Islamic parties in Pakistan.
One and half months before the election, the Election Commission of Pakistan revoked PTI's electoral symbol in December 2023, forcing their candidates to run as independents. Currently, the PTI-backed alliance holds over 100 seats in the National Assembly — the largest bloc. PML-N sits second with 75 seats, and PPP third with 54. A political alliance needs 134 seats to form a government.
Read More: Pakistan’s political landscape: What to expect from the 2024 elections
Newly elected representatives were sworn in on February 28th, 2024, and the Prime Ministerial post will be decided on March 3rd. Supporters of the PTI party protested the formation of the new PPP-PML-N coalition government, chanting “vote-thief” as members were sworn in. The upcoming election for Prime Minister is expected to be a close race between Shehbaz Sharif from the PML-N party and Omar Ayub from the PTI party.
Widespread rigging
February 8, 2024, will be regarded as one of the least credible elections in Pakistan's recent history due to allegations of “vote rigging”, internet shutdown and delayed results. This led to protests by ethnic parties like the Balochistan National Party (BNP), Hazara Democratic Party, and National Party, leading to blocked highways, some lasting for two weeks. Supporters of the PTI protested nationwide against “rigging”, while the Pakistan police threatened crackdowns against them.
The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) faced heavy criticism for its impartiality and failure to ensure “free and fair elections”. In February 2023, Liaqat Ali Chatta, a Commissioner of the district administration of Rawalpindi in Punjab province, alleged in a press conference that he was pressured to manipulate results for 13 candidates. He further accused the Chief Election Commissioner and Chief Justice of involvement in the act, which they refuted as unsubstantiated. This confession has bolstered the widespread belief that this was a “pre-decided election” and gave the PTI more reasons to protest. Chatta later retracted these claims, adding to the controversy and chaos.
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The coalition talks
On February 20, 2024, the PPP and PML-NA reached an agreement to form a coalition government. PML-N's Mian Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif, who previously served as Prime Minister from April 2022 to August 2023, has been nominated for the position again. The PPP has nominated former president Asif Ali Zardari, who served from 2008–2013, for the presidential seat.
Before the elections, PML-N had hoped for party leader Nawaz Sharif to reclaim the Prime Minister position. However, the election results forced them to compromise within the coalition. The PPP, as the second-largest party with 54 seats, holds significant power in these negotiations. PPP and PML-N have a shared history of opposing Imran Khan and his PTI party. This shared interest formed the basis of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) alliance launched in September 2020, together with other religious parties, including Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F)). This new coalition government can be seen as an extension of that alliance.
Pakistan's latest round of political instability traces back to April 2022, when Imran Khan was ousted as Prime Minister through a no-confidence vote. His subsequent arrest in May 2022 on corruption charges ignited widespread protests and riots. Facing incessant judicial harassment, Khan was arrested again on August 5, 2021, on corruption charges and sentenced to three years in prison. Pakistan remained under the administration of a caretaker government established after the dissolution of its parliament on August 9, 2023. The extended duration of this caretaker set-up has added instability in the country.
Read More: Former Pakistan prime minister Imran Khan arrested once again ahead of elections
Media Vans waiting outside the National Assembly of Pakistan. Image by Ramna Saeed. Used with permission.
What lies ahead for Pakistan?
The 2024 General Elections, anticipated to address Pakistan's political and economic instability, have instead created further uncertainty. The fragile coalition government, formed by the PPP, PML-N, and independent candidates, faces challenges due to complicated power-sharing agreements. The PPP's strong influence could lead to them threatening to withdraw support in case of any disagreement, causing further instability and crisis.
This post-election political turmoil directly impacts the already struggling economy). Pakistan is approaching the end of its USD 3 billion IMF bailout package agreement and must meet targets set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to steer the economy in the right direction. Further complicating the situation, former Prime Minister Khan has sent a letter to the IMF proposing that any financial assistance be conditional on an audit of the 2024 General Elections. This action has sparked significant controversy and criticism, as such a move could hinder future bailout efforts. This could lead Pakistan to default on its financial obligations, particularly debt repayments.
Read More: Pakistan’s general elections: AI, internet shutdowns and disillusionment
The opposition, particularly PTI, has effectively utilized social media to mobilize its voters and supporters for the 2024 election campaigns. Often restricted from holding large physical gatherings, PTI held “virtual jalsas” (mass gatherings) online to maintain voter engagement. Additionally, party leader Khan used artificial intelligence (AI) technology to deliver his speech from prison to energize his supporter base. Even outside of power, PTI continued to mobilize the public, bringing them to the streets and arranging protests. This public support for Khan is a weapon for PTI, which poses a significant threat to the future ruling coalition.
The General Elections 2024 raised two key questions: firstly, which party would govern the country next? Secondly, will the prevailing political turmoil end? While the announcements of coalition agreements have provided clarity on the first question, the second remains unresolved. Pakistanis have to sit and watch how the political situation unfolds.
Written by Maheen Waheed
This post originally appeared on Global Voices.
