Since 2020, around 48,000 hospitality businesses have closed across Germany and 6,100 have filed for insolvency, according to a study by the credit agency Creditreform, which was published on Thursday.
The experts expect the sector to thin out even further. "The wave has only just begun," said Patrik-Ludwig Hantzsch, head of Creditreform's economic research.
According to the study, one in 10 companies in the catering industry closed down last year alone. At 14,000, the number of closures in 2023 was higher than in the previous three years, but still below the pre-coronavirus level. The same applies to the number of insolvencies.
Hantzsch sees one reason for this in the government aid during the lockdowns, which would have ensured that many companies remained afloat and prevented closures for the time being.
There are several reasons for the industry's difficulties, he said. "The catering industry is one of the main losers in the aftermath of the crisis in recent years. The catering industry had not yet recovered from the coronavirus crisis when the next blow came with inflation," said Hantzsch.
The industry is at the mercy of the increased costs, and the necessary price increases are driving customers away. As a result, price-adjusted sales and earnings are below pre-pandemic levels.
"The overall economic conditions are currently anything but favourable for the hospitality industry. The increase in VAT on food at the beginning of the year has certainly not helped to ease the situation," said Hantzsch.
The German government had temporarily reduced the tax rate on food in restaurants from 19% to 7% in mid-2020 during the coronavirus pandemic to cushion the impact of the energy crisis and high inflation. The old, higher tax rates have been in force again since January.
According to Creditreform, the number of insolvencies in the catering industry rose by 27% last year, more than in the economy as a whole. Caterers and food service providers were particularly badly affected, up 67%.
As many as 88% of all insolvencies are attributable to micro-enterprises with up to 10 employees, while 49% affected young companies that were no more than five years old.
For 2024, Creditreform predicts an increase in insolvencies to pre-pandemic levels. The financial information service CRIF also expects this.
At the end of the year, the experts estimated the number of restaurants, pubs, snack bars and cafés at risk of insolvency in Germany at more than 15,000.