The OPTA supercomputer has taken a look at the promotion chances of all four teams that are chasing down a place in the Championship top two.
The Championship promotion race continues to twist and turn at every available opportunity. Four teams remain in the hunt for just two automatic places, meaning two will miss out and face the randomness of the play-offs.
READ MORE: Championship play-offs 2024: Dates, fixtures, TV details, final and prediction
Leicester City have seen their large lead at the top dwindle after a poor run of form, which continued into the latest run of fixtures. A 1-0 defeat to Plymouth Argyle opened up opportunities to the other teams in the race.
Leeds United were next up to give it a shot, only to suffer a similar fate, losing to Blackburn Rovers. Ipswich Town moved to the top of the league, but could only manage that with a 1-1 draw, meaning all three top teams failed to win again.
The biggest benefactors of this will have been Southampton, who were seemingly out of the race again until recently. A late win over Watford means that the Saints can still catch the top two, with some big fixtures ahead.
Championship supercomputer predictions
Following the recent set of matches, the chances of promotion for each team has swung yet again. With just three games left for Daniel Farke to secure a return to the Premier League with Leeds, there is a huge challenge ahead.
OPTA Analyst have released the latest predictions from their supercomputer model, which looks to estimate a team’s chances based on several factors. As it stands, Leicester are favourites to earn promotion.
The algorithm gives the Foxes an 85.4% chance of a top-two finish, which is a reduction of 2.5% on the previous week, though results worked in their favour. Enzo Maresca’s side also have an extra game to play than the two teams below them in the odds.
One of those sides is Ipswich, who have seen the chances swing in their favour, despite their failure to pick up a win. `The Tractor Boys saw their chances rise by 13.4%, up to 64.2% chance overall of sealing promotion.
Leeds were the biggest losers over the week, according to the supercomputer, as their chances were reduced by 16.6%. The Whites are given a 42.7% probability of a return to the Premier League through an automatic place.
Southampton saw their slim chances of a top-two finish grow slightly, up to 7.7%. The Saints still have to play Leeds and Leicester, while requiring some poor form elsewhere to work in their favour.
Championship fixture swing
The most important thing to note about the Championship promotion race is that it can all swing once again. The coming fixtures will dictate a lot surrounding when the teams will face certain opposition and how that may impact their games.
READ MORE: Leeds United fixtures compared to Leicester and Ipswich in promotion race after Blackburn defeat
Leicester have one game in hand over both Leeds and Ipswich, while Southampton have two on their rivals. That may be an important factor, while another point will surround the timing of the matches in the weeks ahead.
Ipswich don’t play their next game until April 27, by which point Leeds will have played two of their final three already. Should the Whites have another six points on the board, it may be a completely different outlook heading into the final week.
It’s still all to play for, but at this stage, any slip-up could be costly, with little time to make amends.