The gold price corrected this week, even falling briefly below US$2,300 per ounce. While that's down from levels of over US$2,400 earlier this month, most experts aren't concerned about the yellow metal's price activity.
I asked Craig Hemke of TFMetalsReport.com about the recent pullback, and he said that it's completely normal — he noted that nothing ever goes straight up, and emphasized that a "two steps forward, one step back" pattern is healthy.
With that said, Hemke does see strong upside potential for the precious metal in 2024. He said there are a lot of technical targets that line up with US$2,650 or US$2,700, and said that's probably the next point to watch for. While those heights won't necessarily be achieved this year, he thinks gold could finish the period at US$2,400 or US$2,500.
"Let’s just say, maybe we can finish the year at US$2,400, US$2,500. That would be a pretty good year, that would be 20 percent — that would double what the average has been since the turn of the century” — Craig Hemke, TFMetalsReport.com
Gold's price activity comes against a backdrop of interesting economic data.
Friday (April 26) brought the latest personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index numbers out of the US, and they show that the all-items gauge rose 2.7 percent year-on-year and 0.3 percent from the previous month. PCE is the US Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, and it's in focus as the central bank gears up to meet next week.
Attracting perhaps even more attention was Thursday's (April 25) GDP report, which shows that the US economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.6 percent during Q1, down from 3.4 percent in Q4 of last year. With inflation still not in line with the Fed's 2 percent goal, experts are now concerned that a stagflationary scenario could be building.
Bullet briefing — Anglo rejects BHP, copper hits US$10,000
Anglo rejects BHP's US$39 billion offer
Major diversified miner BHP (ASX:BHP,LSE:BHP,NYSE:BHP) turned heads this week when it made a US$39 billion takeover offer for Anglo American (LSE:AAL,OTCQX:AAUKF), another global powerhouse.
"The combined entity would have a leading portfolio of large, low-cost, long-life Tier 1 assets focused on iron ore and metallurgical coal and future facing commodities, including potash and copper" — BHP
BHP has touted potential synergies, but Anglo American doesn't see it the same way — the company quickly rejected the proposal, calling it "opportunistic" and saying it fails to value its prospects.
BHP is widely expected to make another bid.
Copper price hits US$10,000
A tie up between BHP and Anglo American would create the world's largest copper miner, and the possible deal has directed even more attention to the red metal. Copper has been in focus since mid-March, when Chinese smelters announced plans to work together to cut output. The move came on the back of reduced supply of the red metal, which forced the smelters to drastically reduce treatment and refining charges.
Since then, there's been broader recognition of copper's tight supply and demand fundamentals, and this week brought prices to US$10,000 per metric ton for the first time in two years. While Chinese demand could be a pain point, usage from the green energy transition is expected to boost copper in the years to come.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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