Max Verstappen is under contract at Red Bull until the end of the 2028 season. But there’s no guarantee that he sees that deal through.
Mercedes want Verstappen to replace Lewis Hamilton, who will join Ferrari next year. Team principal Toto Wolff is willing to do whatever it takes to sign him.
That includes paying the Dutchman even more than seven-time world champion Hamilton. And he’s also ready to push for Red Bull’s chief engineer Pierre Wache and director Helmut Marko to sweeten the deal.
But even with all of those incentives, Verstappen has little sporting reason to leave. Red Bull have furnished him with title-winning cars in each of the last three seasons, and the RB20 looks set to be the fourth after he won four of the first five races.
If the 26-year-old departs this year, then he could effectively be passing up a fifth championship. The expectation is that the Bulls will remain the class of the field in 2025.
Mercedes, for their part, appear as far off the pace as ever in the ground effect era. The Silver Arrows have scored just 52 points in the first five rounds.
However, it could be a different calculation in 12 months’ time as F1 gears up for one of the biggest regulation changes in recent history. New rules could mean a new pecking order at the front.
Last time we saw a change of this scale in 2014, Mercedes stole a march on the field and won eight straight titles. And there’s ‘chatter’ in the paddock that Verstappen will have the option to leave Red Bull if he isn’t satisfied with their first solo RBPT project.
The Dutchman’s former trainer could only see him moving on if he felt he had a better chance of winning elsewhere. He could keep his faith in Red Bull, take a potentially fruitful risk on Mercedes or bide his time.
Red Bull identify possible Max Verstappen successor
According to journalist Joe Saward, Red Bull have already picked out the man who could be their number-one driver if Verstappen does go. Williams driver Alex Albon, who raced for the team in 2019 and 2020, is a target.
Saward has previously revealed that Albon has an offer on the table to return to the Milton Keynes outfit for 2026. But he may now be able to avoid the ‘impossible’ clash with Verstappen.
He reiterates that Red Bull ‘seem pretty keen’ on bringing Albon back in a couple of years. Williams would like to hold onto him, and their best bet of doing that is building a more competitive car.
The Thai driver knows that ‘he could become the team leader’ under Christian Horner if Verstappen moves on. And that could be too good a proposition to turn down.
Why did Alex Albon leave Red Bull?
Midway through the 2019 season, Red Bull axed Pierre Gasly and promoted Albon from junior team Toro Rosso. He made a quietly solid start, placing in the top six at eight of the last nine races.
But in 2020, he failed to meet the team’s expectations. He finished outside the points in five of the 17 rounds and only managed two podiums to Verstappen’s 11.
Red Bull ultimately decided to replace Albon with Sergio Perez. But he would argue that the Mexican hasn’t been a marked upgrade.
Immediately after leaving Red Bull, Albon spent a year on the sidelines. But since returning to Williams in 2022, he’s rebuilt his reputation.
James Vowles has offered him an effective ‘audition’ in the team leader role ahead of the inexperienced Logan Sargeant, and he’s stepped up to the plate. Last year, he scored 27 of their 28 points, almost single-handedly hauling them to seventh in the championship.
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