Despite its local dimension, traditionally the Catalan election has a relevant influence over the whole Spanish political arena, even when it comes to the EU elections.
According to the Spanish political arena and public opinion, it is highly likely that the ongoing arduous negotiations to form a local government among the political forces in Barcelona are going to sway the campaign for the EU vote that will take place on 9th June.
The backbreaking negotiations have just started. The Socialists (a member of S&D in Strasbourg) have won, yet they did not reach a sufficient number of seats to rule Catalonia.
The separatist forces have lost their push. Yet, the party that suffered the strongest drain of votes among the pro-independence forces, is ERC (the Republican Left of Catalonia, affiliated to the Greens in the EU parliament) led by Pere Aragonès.
The Republican Left of Catalonia has been supporting the central government led by the Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, and put aside, temporarily, the original intention to secede by taking a negotiating approach with the government in Madrid.
In exchange, the Centre-Left and Left executive granted amnesty to some of the secessionist leaders who organised the separatist referendum in 2017.
The Catalan question has been severely polarizing the entire Spanish political arena and society since the referendum that was held despite the prohibition of the then-central government.
Most of the Spaniards and the Catalan loyalists that opposed the amnesty gave their vote to the centre right and to the right.
The Peoples' Party and Vox, both national loyalist parties, had relative success in Catalonia too. The Peoples' Party is a member of the centre-right EPP (the European People's Party) and Vox of the national-conservative ECR (European Conservatives and Reformists).
The ups and downs of Pedro Sanchez's popularity were also related to the Catalan question.
The moderate conservatives and right-wing political forces' resolute stance against the socialist government's proposed amnesty for the organizers of the separatist referendum increased their popularity.
The amnesty has not been implemented yet, and would imply the opportunity for the Catalan separatist leader Carles Puigdemont to come back to Spain.
Spain succeeded at watering down the Catalan crisis also thanks to the crystal clear rejection of the separatist option by the European Union institutions and the member states.
The other polarizing factors in Spain that have been influencing the EU vote are the farmers' discontent, the gender-LGBTQ+ issues, and the growing anti-migration sentiments, both questions depend mostly on the EU political level.
The EU elections are set to become crucial for the Spanish political forces and their future.
According to the Euronews Polls Centre, the PP (Peoples' Party) is leading the voting intentions of the EU elections, even if it seems to be slowing down gently, by losing 0.3% compared with last March 2024.
The EU elections front-runner of the Partido Popular at national level, is the Catalan EPP's MEP Dolors Montserrat. She served as minister of health in the conservative government of Mariano Rajoy (PP-EPP) when Catalonia held the separatist referendum.
The national-conservative Vox party has also appointed at the top of its list in the EU elections a Catalan politician, Jorge Buxadé, a former member of the far-right group Falange Española - Jons, a legacy of Francisco Franco's era.
The choice of the moderate conservative to present a Catalan front-runner is part of an operational move to gather as many votes as possible in Catalonia, which has a quite relevant demographic and electoral weight.
It is also a strategy to politically challenge the autonomous region that is a traditional stronghold of regional nationalist parties, socialists and leftists.
The PSOE (the Spanish Socialist Workers Party) of Pedro Sanchez has listed as front-runner for the European vote a prominent politician, Teresa Ribera, the current minister of the Green Transition. She is set to become a Spanish member of the future EU Commission.
The Catalan local nationalists' votes will distribute their seats among different groups in the EU Parliament. Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya's few MEPs will be members of the Greens group, along with other Spanish local nationalist forces.
Junts, the still alive and kicking separatist Party of Carles Puigdemont, is part of the Non-Attached group.
If Carles Puigdemont comes back to Spain from his self-proclaimed exile he could influence the voting intentions of the region.
"Yet, the amnesty decree is still to be signed by Pedro Sanchez. And it has many political implications that go well beyond the current Catalan talks and next June EU elections" says the conservative analyst Juan A. Soto from Fortius Consulting.
As for the Left, Sumar has lost some ground since March, the SuperPoll suggests. They are at 9% of the voting intentions. Its leader, Yolanda Díaz, has given Sumar's five or six potential MEPs, the freedom to choose the group they would join between the Greens and the European Left.
However, the political situation in Spain is still extremely fluid and the electoral opinions could undergo fast and furious changes in political direction.
