Newcastle United player of the season Alexander Isak is one of their most valuable assets but financial fair play and interest from Arsenal means his future is uncertain.
The Swede, 24, is under contract at St James’ Park until 2028 having arrived from Real Sociedad for £63m in August 2022.
He has proven to be one of the most successful additions in the Saudi Public Investment Fund’s premiership in the north east, netting more than a goal every other game across 65 appearances.
As reported by The Independent, Isak is Arsenal’s top target this summer despite the fact he has been offered a new deal on improved terms by the Newcastle.
But with the Premier League set to vote on new financial rules at their AGM on 6th June, Newcastle must consider very carefully whether they can afford not to sell the striker.
Do Newcastle need to sell Isak under financial fair play?
Newcastle will learn on 6th June whether they must adapt to a new paradigm of financial fair play (now called Profit and Sustainability rules, or PSR).
It is believed that the Premier League is likely to pass a proposal which would see a new squad cost control ratio and a financial anchoring system introduced from this summer onwards.
The cost control system will limit clubs to spending 70 per cent of their revenue on wages, transfers and agent fees.
The anchoring system meanwhile will stop clubs from spending between five and six times the amount that the bottom-placed club earned in TV cash over a given season. The exact multiple is yet to be decided.
Analysis from Off The Pitch estimates that Newcastle will be between £60m and £63m over the threshold, although heightened revenues in 2023-24 will impact that figure.
Other experts have suggested that Newcastle could be in a slightly more favourable position, perhaps around £45m over the PSR limit.
Either way, European qualification could be key. Eddie Howe‘s side finished 7th in the Premier League but need Man City to beat Man United in the FA Cup final to ensure they play in the Europa Conference League next season.
Playing in the Conference League brings in far more modest revenue than the Champions League but could still be worth up to £20m if they make good progress in the competition.
With Isak being one of the club’s top earners and likely to command a transfer fee around the £100m mark, his sale would plug the PSR gap and then some.
But with Newcastle having a number of other saleable but perhaps less prized assets that could instead make up the deficit, Newcastle’s decision will likely do everything in their power to keep hold of Isak.
Which clubs have been linked with Isak?
Arsenal are believed to be the favourites to sign Isak, but there is competition for his signature among fellow Premier League clubs and elite teams in Europe.
Paris Saint-Germain are reportedly keen on the player, while Chelsea have not been concretely linked but are in the market for a top number nine.
Barcelona has also been suggested as a possible destination.
Can Arsenal afford Isak?
Arsenal themselves are believed to be close to the bone in terms of financial fair play, with Off The Pitch’s calculations giving them a £57-65m deficit to make up.
But their capacity to bring in extra revenue to plug the gap is greater than Newcastle’s, while Mikel Arteta has stabilised the wage budget in the last few years.
The rumoured departures of Gabriel Jesus, Thomas Partey, Emile Smith Rowe, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Aaron Ramsdale could free up as much as £40m on top of that, as well as bringing in sizable transfer fees.