The regular season is complete and conference tournaments are here. There might not be a more important one this season than the SEC Tournament in Hoover this week.
In our latest Field of 64 projections released on Monday before conference tournament week, 11 SEC teams were in the field. Five were hosting a regional. That being said, there are more SEC teams in danger of missing the postseason field than you might think.
Beginning on Tuesday, every game in Hoover will matter. Even beyond the SEC, the results of Tuesday’s and the rest of the week’s results will have a big say in the ultimate NCAA field.
From the hosting battle for the top overall seeds to the teams that really need a strong showing, let’s break down what’s at stake in the SEC Tournament.
Battle for the top overall seeds
First thing’s first, none of the four SEC teams in contention for the top four or five seeds in the NCAA Tournament are in danger of falling out of the hosting picture. Still, what happens in Hoover will likely determine who claims the coveted top overall seed.
Tennessee (46-10, 22-8 in SEC, No. 5 in RPI) and Kentucky (39-12, 22-8 in SEC, No. 3 in RPI) finished the regular season as SEC co-champions, and they both have a strong case for the top seed. Kentucky might have the inside edge with a 19-6 quad 1 record. Between quad 1 and quad 2, Kentucky is 27-9 while Tennessee is 25-9. Both teams have a bye into the double elimination portion of Hoover. Kentucky will get the winner of Georgia and LSU, while Tennessee will face the winner of Vanderbilt and Florida. Whoever goes further could be rewarded with the top overall seed.
Next, Texas A&M (44-11, 19-11 in SEC, No. 1 in RPI) and Arkansas (43-12, 20-10 in SEC, No. 2 in RPI) could both wind up as the top overall seed. Arkansas has the head-to-head series win over Texas A&M, but both are still in play at the top. Texas A&M gets the winner of Mississippi State and Ole Miss, while Arkansas faces the winner of Alabama and South Carolina. Both the Aggies and Razorbacks would benefit from short runs from Tennessee and Kentucky as they battle for the top seed.
North Carolina and Clemson are the only other teams that are truly in play for the top seeds. UNC likely has the inside track after winning the regular season ACC crown. Still, it’s likely four of the top six seeds come from the SEC.
Five teams enter Hoover 13-17 in league play – will they all make the NCAA Tournament?
All of a sudden, five SEC teams enter this week’s tournament in Hoover with a 13-17 regular season league record. It’s fair to wonder if that many teams will get in the NCAA Tournament.
LSU is undoubtedly playing the best of the bunch. The Tigers won four of their final five regular season SEC series, including a monster series win over Texas A&M during that stretch. The defending national champions have gone from completely out of the mix to a real contender to make the final field. LSU’s RPI is at No. 30, which will keep them in the mix.
After winning a series over Arkansas in April, Alabama has lost three of their final five SEC series. They did manage to win the series against LSU in the penultimate weekend of the regular season, which could factor in. But losing two out of three to Auburn to end the regular season was disastrous. Alabama does sit at No. 18 in RPI, which aids their argument.
Florida did not win a series in the month of April, and before taking two out of three against Georgia this past weekend had lost six consecutive series. While the Gators have remained high in RPI throughout the season, currently at No. 24, they have hovered around the .500-mark all year and a team below .500 isn’t making the tournament. Still, will a team two games above .500 get the nod?
Then, there’s South Carolina. The Gamecocks were in the hosting mix after the first weekend in May. Since then, they have lost six consecutive games, coming through sweeps by Georgia and Tennessee. All of a sudden, South Carolina’s place in the NCAA Tournament is far from assured. Even with RPI sitting at No. 19, if the Gamecocks see an early exit they might end up on the wrong side of the bubble.
Finally, Vanderbilt comes in at RPI No. 27 as the next SEC team at 13-17 in league play entering the tournament. The Commodores won just one of their final six SEC series. Once safely in the mix as a likely NCAA Tournament host, Vanderbilt now would really benefit from a run in Hoover.
Tuesday elimination games will set the tone across the country
Game 1: LSU vs. Georgia
Game 2: South Carolina vs. Alabama
Game 3: Florida vs. Vanderbilt
Game 4: Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State
For the five teams at 13-17 entering the SEC Tournament, Tuesday’s game might be must-win. That is especially true for the teams in Game 2 and Game 3, as South Carolina battles Alabama and Florida takes on Vanderbilt. The loser of those games will be eliminated from Hoover, with the other being guaranteed two more games to build their resume.
A lot depends on how many bids are stolen across the country. But right now, the 13-17 SEC teams are much closer to the bubble than they are safely in the field. If a ton of bids are stolen and teams that otherwise would have been highly-ranked conference champions become at-large bids, these SEC teams could be in danger.
The other two games are pivotal as well. LSU, as mentioned, needs to win in Game 1 against Georgia. But it’s big for the Bulldogs as well. Georgia is firmly in the mix for a top eight seed. If they fall to LSU today, they don’t feel set in stone as a top eight, though they are certainly still in the mix. For teams like Oklahoma, Oregon State, East Carolina, Florida State, NC State and Indiana State that could play themselves into a top eight seed, they are rooting for Georgia to lose.
Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State is a big game too. Ole Miss is 11-17 in the SEC and likely out of the NCAA Tournament barring a deep run and a lot of help. They might need to win the tournament. For Mississippi State, they are trying to earn their way into hosting a regional. They finished just short in Monday’s Field of 64 as our 17th team in contention, but a deep run could have them right back in that top 16. Lose on Tuesday and go one-and-done in Hoover, though, and the Bulldogs’ hosting chances are over.
The post 2024 SEC Baseball Tournament: What’s at stake this week in Hoover appeared first on On3.