By Beatriz Esquivel
Anyone who's followed the news about seismic activity in recent years has probably noticed intensifying rumors about "the Big One": a huge earthquake of catastrophic powerthat is supposed to occur sometime in the near future. Here's, in broad terms, why some experts believe it's coming—but it probably won't be as apocalyptic as Hollywood would have you believe.
The "Big One"
The "Big One" will supposedly take place along the San Andreas fault, which stretches for 1,200 km (750 mi) between the states of California and Baja California, Mexico. The fault goes through some of the most important cities in both states, and its potential to produce apocalyptic settings has resulted in at least two blockbuster films in recent years: 2012and San Andreas.
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The San Andreas Fault
The San Andreas fault forms the boundary between two huge tectonic plates:the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate. Its depths hold a great deal of tectonic activity, with tension being regularly built up and released in the form of clashes in the Earth's crust,which can result in powerful earthquakes. Its sheer size and location make it a hotspot for potentially devastating seismic activity, and scientists estimate that in about 50,000 years, the San Andreas fault will cause the Baja California Peninsula to drift north and split from Mexico, becoming an island. The fault is also slowly bringing important cities as big as Los Angeles and San Francisco closer together.
Of course, we won't see these large-scale effects of the fault's activity within our lifetime, although we have in fact witnessed the kind of seismic activity that signals shifts deep in the plates and resulting release in tension. But this is entirely normal—and the more gradually the tension is released, the less damaging its effects are going to be.
So, what's the problem? Well, many experts are worried that whatever activity there's been along the San Andreas fault, it's still not much relatively speaking. For the size and disposition of the plate, experts warn, it's been awfully quiet for a long time—even taking into account the recent earthquakes.
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This overall lack of activity leads many to believe that the southern region of the San Andreas fault is accumulating a great deal of pressure as it stores more and more energy. And that energy and pressure need to be released at some point. The more it takes, the greater the release will be. That couldtechnically trigger a huge earthquake of unprecedented proportions.
But there's no need to panic
Notice a big emphasis on could. Truth is, though seismologists are worried about the possibility, the current state of technology doesn't really allow us to predict with any kind of accuracy when an earthquake might occur or how strong it's going to be. For all we know, many smaller earthquakes over several decades are just as possible as one huge earthquake tomorrow. There's no real way to tell right now.
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Seismologists like Thomas H. Jordan, director of the Southern California Earthquake Center, are working hard on improving their ability to accurately predict and communicate information about seismic activity in any given region—even through a thoroughly accessible app, as reportedby the Los Angeles Times.
In the meantime, there's no need to panic. Sure, earthquakes are scary, but there are good measures already in place to mitigate and deal with any damage they might cause. If you live near an area prone to seismic activity, you can always prepare for an emergency without becoming too alarmed that it's coming.
Follow the advice of official authorities and keep a first aid kid always handy, in addition to an emergency backpack that includes drinking water, a flashlight, batteries, canned food, and even some cash. Regardless of whether there's any major or minor earthquake on the horizon, it's always better to be safe than sorry:it won't hurt you to learn safety procedures, after all.
Translated by Oliver G. Alvar
