A substantially higher number of Democrats have requested mail-in ballots compared to registered Republicans. A significant number of voters who did not participate in the 2016 presidential election have requested 2020 ballots. A NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released last month showed that nearly half of Biden’s supporters planned to vote by mail, compared with just one-tenth of Trump supporters. These requests are also coming in from major swing states, such as North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Reports indicate that in both of these states, Democrats have a 3-to-1 advantage over Republicans in their absentee ballot requests. In Florida, one of the most highly contentious states and the source of a huge electoral win for Donald Trump in the 2016 election, the Democrats have amassed an enormous lead in early voting, with more than 700,000 ballot requests. The Democratic Party also leads in New Hampshire, Ohio and Iowa — all of which are also important swing states.
Additionally, Democrats who did not vote back in 2016 are requesting ballots for the upcoming election at higher rates than those in the GOP. A prime example is Pennsylvania, where almost 175,000 Democrats who did not vote four years ago have already requested ballots, more than twice the current number of Republicans.
That being said, the current numbers are no true indication of the complete voter turnout for the November 3 election. While these figures may appear to be alarming Republicans, the GOP is banking on the fact that there will be an overwhelmingly high Republican voter turnout on Election Day. However, to rely on such a feat is risky, given the dangers of the current global pandemic, which could easily motivate people to stay home. To provide reassurance, the Republican campaign points to congressional elections in red New York and Wisconsin districts from earlier this year. Republicans were trailing behind in absentee voting, but they made big comebacks on the actual Election Day, giving them a comparable number of votes and, ultimately, two key victories.
With this in mind, Trump aides assert that the current Democratic advantage will be overcome on election day, insisting that the Democratic party is merely front-loading their voters who would have otherwise come out on November 3.
The lack of mail-in voting from the Republican side may be a result of Trump’s questioning of the legitimacy of this approach. The current president has repeatedly said that this could lead to voter fraud.
