PHILADELPHIA — Joe Biden continues to hold a solid lead over President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania with just over a week until Election Day, a new poll found.
Biden has support from 52% of likely Pennsylvania voters, compared to 44% for Trump, according to the survey from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
The poll released Monday also found a massive lead for Biden among people voting early: 87% of Pennsylvanians who have already voted favored the Democrat, the poll found. The poll only surveyed 193 voters in this category, however, a relatively small sample, which increases the margin of error for the group. As of Friday, almost 1.5 million Pennsylvanians had cast mail ballots early, in a sign of extraordinary voter turnout.
Of those who have not yet voted, 59% support Trump, according to the poll.
Pennsylvania is now seen as vital to Trump’s reelection hopes, and is widely viewed as one of the few states likely to decide the winner. In a clear sign of its importance, Biden made two stops in Pennsylvania on Saturday and Trump has three rallies scheduled Monday.
Overall, Biden’s 8-percentage point lead falls within the range of most recent Pennsylvania surveys from top-rated pollsters, which have found him leading by between 5 and 10. The advantage for Biden leaves open a wide range of eventual outcomes, from a rout for the Democratic nominee to a neck-and-neck finish if there’s a modest closing shift in Trump’s favor or a polling error like the ones seen in 2016.
The Divided States of Pennsylvania: How one state embodies America’s political discordPennsylvania continues to show a huge gap in political preferences between white voters with and without college degrees — the largest such divide of the three so-called “Blue Wall” states Trump won in 2016, along with Wisconsin and Michigan.
Trump leads 58% to 38% among non-college white voters in Pennsylvania, but trails 66% to 31% among those with degrees, the poll found. That educational divide has become one of the defining differences in American politics.
Biden also continues to hold significant leads among women and in big cities, small cities, and suburbs, while Trump hold a major advantage in rural areas.
The poll surveyed 669 likely voters in Pennsylvania from Oct. 13 to Oct. 21 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.45 percentage points.
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