Another weekend, another chance to win some money on NFL action. While everyone likes to bet on the spread, Moneyline, or the over/under, prop bets are where I make my money. Last week I went 11-2 on my 13 prop bets. I got the lock of the week prop right as Justin Herbert threw for two touchdowns, going over his 1.5 total.
Each week, I will give my favorite prop bet from each game for the weekend. To have a little fun with it, I will be keeping track of how many prop bets I correctly predict. In addition, I will select one bet as my lock of the week. If it hits, I get a bonus point, but if I’m wrong, I lose two points. Probably none of you care about this, so without further ado, I take my 60-56 record for the season and dive into the best prop bets for Week 10.
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Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants
Evan Engram Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-134)
After a slow start to the season, Engram has picked up his play over the last three weeks. He has seen at least nine targets while catching at least five of them in every game. Furthermore, Engram has at least 45 receiving yards in each of those games. Meanwhile, the Eagles have had no luck slowing down tight ends this season. They have given up at least 45 receiving yards to tight ends in five straight games. Furthermore, when Engram faced the Eagles a few weeks ago, he had six receptions for 46 yards. Expect Engram to have his fourth straight game with 45 or more receiving yards tomorrow.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Green Bay Packers
James Robinson Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-118)
Robinson has been a pleasant surprise for the 1-7 Jaguars. He is averaging 4.4 yards per carry and has 75 or more rushing yards in half of his games this season. Furthermore, he has a total of 218 rushing yards over his last two games. Meanwhile, the Packers have an awful run defense. They have given up 70 or more rushing yards to running backs in 75 percent of their games this season. Furthermore, they have allowed running backs to go over the century mark in half of their games. With a rookie quarterback, the Jaguars will lean on Robinson against an awful Packers’ run defense.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers
Leonard Fournette Over 8.5 Rushing Attempts (-120)
Last week, the Buccaneers ran the ball a total of five times in a blowout loss to the Saints. However, they won’t make the same mistake this week, especially against an awful run defense. The Panthers have given up 100 or more rushing yards in six of nine games this season, including 121 to the Buccaneers in Week 2. In that game, Fournette had 12 attempts for a season-high 103 yards. Since returning from injury, Fournette is averaging 13 rushing attempts per game (removing last week’s game). The Buccaneers should have no trouble running the ball down the Panthers’ throat tomorrow, so expect both Fournette and Ronald Jones to see 12 or more rushing attempts.
Houston Texans vs Cleveland Browns
Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+120)
The last time we saw Mayfield, he had an awful performance in a windy game against the Raiders. He completed only 48 percent of his passes for 122 yards and zero touchdowns. However, expect him to bounce back tomorrow against the Texans. Before the game against the Raiders, Mayfield had thrown for two or more touchdowns in five of his last six games. Meanwhile, the Texans have given up two or more passing touchdowns in three of their previous four games. The one exception being last week against a rookie quarterback making his first career start. Don’t be surprised if Mayfield throws for two touchdowns in the first half.
Washington Football Team vs Detroit Lions
Antonio Gibson to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+100)
Despite receiving a career-low nine touches last week, Gibson found the end zone for the fifth time this season. Furthermore, he has scored a rushing touchdown in back-to-back weeks. Tomorrow, he faces a Lions team that has been awful against the run this season. They have given up five rushing touchdowns over the last three games. Furthermore, the Lions have given up two or more rushing touchdowns in four of their previous seven games. It is more likely than Gibson scores twice tomorrow than not at all.
Buffalo Bills vs Arizona Cardinals
DeAndre Hopkins Under 5.5 Receptions (+128)
If anyone suggested taking this prop bet at the end of September, they would rightfully be called crazy. In the month of September, Hopkins averaged just under 11 receptions per game. However, over his last three games, Hopkins has more than three receptions only once. Furthermore, during that span, Christian Kirk has become Kyler Murray‘s favorite weapon, averaging eight targets per game over the last two weeks. To make matters worst for Hopkins, Tre’Davious White will spend plenty of time trying to shut him down, only forcing Murray to look Kirk’s way even more.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins
Mike Williams Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Since he returned from an injury in Week 4, Williams has at least seven targets in three of four games. During that span, Williams is averaging 73.3 receiving yards per game, finishing three games with 80 or more receiving yards. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have struggled at defending the pass this season. They have given up 115 or more receiving yards in six of their last seven games, including 200 or more receiving yards in two straight games. Tomorrow’s game between the two rookie quarterbacks should be a shootout, opening up the door for Williams to have his third game in a row with 80 or more receiving yards.
Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders
Josh Jacobs Under 2.5 Receptions (-168)
Jacobs has been one of the better running backs in the league this year; however, he isn’t a factor in the passing game. After having three or more receptions in each of his first four games, Jacobs has a total of six receptions over his last four games. Meanwhile, the Broncos have one of the better run defenses in the league but struggle against the pass. This game should be high scoring, with both quarterbacks pushing the ball downfield, so don’t expect Jacobs to have much of a role in the passing game tomorrow.
Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams
Robert Woods Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
Both Woods and the Rams’ passing attack has been lackluster at times this season. However, Woods had arguably his best game of the season last week, where he caught seven of nine targets for 85 yards and a touchdown. It marked the fourth time in eight games this season that Woods had 70 or more receiving yards. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have the worst passing defense this season. They are giving up an average of 279.5 receiving yards per game to wide receivers. Expect both Woods and fellow wide receiver, Cooper Kupp, to have over 100 receiving yards.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Tee Higgins Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The last time Higgins failed to finish a game with fewer than 62 receiving yards was Week 3. Higgins has five straight games with at least 62 receiving yards. During that span, Higgins has four games with 70 or more receiving yards. Meanwhile, the Steelers have struggled to slow down wide receivers this season. They have given up 165 or more receiving yards to wide receivers in all but one game this season. Furthermore, despite playing with their fourth quarterback of the season, the Cowboys’ wide receivers had 180 receiving yards last week. Don’t be surprised if Higgins has his second game this season with over 100 receiving yards.
San Francisco 49ers vs New Orleans Saints
🔒 Lock of the Week 🔒 Michael Thomas Over 5.5 Receptions (-139)
Unfortunately, Thomas’ 2020 season has been limited to two games so far because of injuries. However, expect him to have a monster game tomorrow against the 49ers. Over the last two weeks, the 49ers have had no answer for opposing team’s top wide receiver. Two weeks ago, D.K. Metcalf caught 12 of 15 targets for 161 yards and two touchdowns. Then last week, Davante Adams caught 10 or 12 targets for 173 yards and a touchdown. Drew Brees has completed 26 or more passes in six of his previous seven games. No one should be surprised if Thomas has six receptions by the end of the first half. This prop is my lock of the week.
Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots
Cam Newton Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-235)
Yes, the price on this bet is very discouraging; however, it is all but a guarantee to hit. Newton has struggled with throwing the ball this season, completing more than 68 percent of his passes in only two games this season. He did that against two awful defenses in the Dolphins and Jets. However, he faces a Ravens secondary that has given up zero passing touchdowns in three of their last five games. Furthermore, Newton hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass since Week 3 and has a total of two passing touchdowns this season.
Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears
Dalvin Cook to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-200)
Over the last two weeks, no running back has played as well as Cook. He has six total touchdowns over his last two games on 56 attempts. That means he scored a touchdown once one every 9.3 touches. Furthermore, Cook has scored at least one rushing touchdown in every game this season while scoring two or more in half of his games. Meanwhile, the Bears have given up a rushing touchdown to running backs in six of nine games this season. Expect the Vikings to focus on the running game Monday night and ride Cook to victory. He is more likely to score twice than not at all.
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