COVID-19: Is India heading towards a second wave?

Speculations that India has been spared from the wrath of COVID-19 have been around since mid-September. However, the country reported 16,886 new cases on February 24, up by a massive 97 percent as compared to the beginning of the month.

By Pankhuri Agarwal

India’s active caseload as of February 26 has risen to 1,52,895, after dropping to a low of 1,33,079 on February 11. The COVID-19 tally has seen an upward trend since February 19.

Among the worst-hit states, Maharashtra topped the list with 8,807 confirmed cases on February 24. Madhya Pradesh, Kerala, and Punjab followed closely, marking the total COVID-19 cases of India at a little over 11 million.

The Central government has rushed Multi-disciplinary High-Level Central Teams to states and Union Territories witnessing a surge in cases.

The Union Health Secretary has written to these states urging immediate safety measures, as Maharashtra considers reimposing lockdown. A week-long curfew is already in place in Amravati, one of the worst-hit districts in the state.

Mutants wreaking havoc

The case of mutant strains making their way into the country has forced the government’s hand. The UK variant, B.117, is on the rise in India, with 187 confirmed cases. Six cases of the South African strain and one case of the Brazilian variant have also been detected.

Threats of a local strain, too, remain large. “It is possible that we may also have a variant independently developed in India,” said virologist Shaheed Jameel in an exclusive interview with Health Analytics Asia. There are 7,684 mutations of the novel coronavirus in the country.

However, government officials said that the scientific evidence so far does not suggest any link between mutant variants of coronavirus detected in the country and the rise in cases.

The genome sequencing fallacy

Studying the virus under a genomic lens has played a pivotal role in pandemic management so far. An extensive study by the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research – Centre for Cellular & Molecular Biology has concluded that monitoring and increasing genome sequencing efforts following local spikes will go a long way in staying on top of mutations of concern.

The Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomics Consortium was established in December 2020, with an aim of sequencing 5 percent of all COVID-19 positive cases in the country. For more than 11 million confirmed cases so far, only 6400 genomes have been sequenced – a paltry 0.05 percent.

Following the upsurge, the states are on “war-footing” to achieve the 5 percent target. Maharashtra and Kerala have reportedly sent 800 to 900 samples from positive cases since the last month, to be sequenced.

How worried should India be

“Corona is rearing its head in the state again. We will know in the coming fortnight if we will have a wave,” said Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray, Chief Minister of Maharashtra, in an address to the state on February 21.

The Centre has written to states and Union Territories to focus on undertaking aggressive measures to break the chain of transmission. Authorities have also urged the general public to continue to follow COVID-19 appropriate behaviour, especially in public places.

Vaccination efforts are also being stepped up as the country has fully vaccinated over 1.8 million people. The government has approved phase 2 of COVID-19 vaccination rollouts starting March 1, targeting people aged 60 years and above and those aged 45 years and above with comorbidities. The goal to vaccinate 300 million people by July 2021 seems tough, but likely.

The post COVID-19: Is India heading towards a second wave? appeared first on Health Analytics Asia.