The NFL Draft is finally here, even though it feels like NFL Draft season all year. For the second year in a row, draft meetings and film room sessions were all virtual. Although there will be fans and the picks will be televised somewhere other than Rodger Goodell’s basement, there is still that interesting dynamic between the teams and the players.
You can expect a handful of trades and a handful of players entering the first round that you may have never seen mocked in the first round. Many evaluators view the class as top-heavy, so the teams drafting in the backend of the first round will reach for second-round talent or opt to trade backs. Every year is crazy, but with five first-round quarterbacks, you can expect chaos tomorrow.
1.01: Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Lawrence has been the first overall pick since he was a five-star recruit in high school. The former Clemson Tiger is the epitome of a pocket passer but also possesses elite athletic traits. Lawrence has five-star high school traits that only got better and now match some of the best pure passing traits this sport has ever seen. Lawrence can certainly clean up some accuracy issues, but no one is perfect. If there is someone close to perfect, it’s Lawrence.
For more on Lawrence, check out our scouting report here.
1.02: New York Jets: Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
Joe Douglas and the Jets locked in their pick a long time ago. Wilson is a player with one year of true production but has flashed some elite traits. His ability to throw off schedule and from a variety of platforms make him truly unique. When you watch him play, you sense that Baker Mayfield level of Moxy. Moving forward, keep an eye on this Robert Saleh-led team. They could compete sooner than people think.
1:03: San Francisco 49ers: Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
A lot of the football community will overreact, but the fit makes too much sense. Kyle Shanahan loved Kirk Cousins and Nick Mullens coming out of college. Those two college quarterbacks were able to identify it before the snap, see it, and rip it. Shanahan likes decisive decision-makers because he trusts his own ability to scheme up the route combinations and make the quarterbacking job easier. The scouting community and even the internal scouts may like Trey Lance or Justin Fields, but Shanahan will take his guy.
1:04: Atlanta Falcons: Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
Arthur Smith and a lot of the front office think this team can compete immediately. Many would argue they were held back by poor coaching, and that is a solid sentiment. If this organization feels this way, you could expect them to hang onto Matt Ryan for two more years. Obviously, trading backing is the best scenario, but Pitts is too hard to pass. Pitts can play anywhere and would complement Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley.
For more on Pitts, check out our scouting report here.
1:05: Cincinnati Bengals: Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
There will be a split war room when it comes to the Bengals and their fifth overall pick. Draft Penei Sewell or Rashawn Slater makes a ton of sense, considering Joe Burrow was beaten around last year and even tore his ACL. However, on the other side, you have a high-end receiving weapon with built-in chemistry with the franchise quarterback. At the end of the day, the Bengals will probably opt-in and select the shiny new toy. This Bengals team could be fun to watch.
1:06: Miami Dolphins: Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
The Dolphins traded back up to the sixth pack after trading out of the third pick. The front office clearly felt comfortable with three players and knew that one of those three would fall. Sewell, Waddle, Chase, Pitts are all players that fit nicely. In this scenario, they get to choose between Sewell and Waddle. If you believe the receiving position is deeper, maybe you take Sewell. If you think the offensive tackle position is weaker, maybe you take Waddle. In this scenario, you will have a hard time finding another Waddle as the draft moves along.
1:07: Los Angeles Chargers (via Detroit Lions): Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
If Sewell takes a little drop from pick number five, there will be many teams looking to pounce and grab the big guy. There is merit to thinking that the Chargers should sit back and grab a cornerback to insert into their new system. However, Justin Herbert is the main priority after putting together an impressive 2020 campaign. Pairing Herbert back up with his Oregon teammate will raise the floor of this offense.
1:08: New England Patriots (via Carolina Panthers) Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
Everyone talks about Lance and his intangibles. You may argue that Lance has never played any good program. You may argue that he is a one-year wonder. However, the elite physical traits and intangibles will never go away. The football world has never seen Bill Belichick placed in this position. After spending tons of money in free agency, it would come as no surprise to see him trade up for a quarterback. Lance has a similar skill set to Cam Newton, which also makes it an interesting fit.
For more on Lance, check out our scouting report here.
1:09: Denver Broncos: Rashawn Slater, OT/OG, Northwestern
George Paton is fresh meat in the Broncos front office. Fans and ownership should not pressure the new guy into making spontaneous moves. On the flip side, Paton should remain confident and not feel pressure to clean up John Elway‘s mess. Do they need a quarterback? Probably. However, if you continue to surround Drew Lock with pieces, at least you give him a fair shot. Vic Fangio is on his last leg as the head coach; there is no reason to rush a championship window that doesn’t exist.
1:10: Dallas Cowboys: Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
This is by far the most common pick in all of the mock drafts you will find. It just makes too much sense and probably turns out to be wrong. However, the fit is perfect. Surtain is arguably the top defensive back in the class and possesses dominant man-coverage traits. He also has a fluid pedal with clean hips to play Cover-3 and Cover-4. The Cowboys secondary is depleted, and Surtain makes too much sense.
1:11: Chicago Bears (via New York Giants): Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
The Bears acted like they were on the brink of making a major move for a quarterback. They had an interest in Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, and Carson Wentz. Shortly after, things got quiet, and they signed Andy Dalton. Obviously, that position needs to be addressed, and this entire regime is on the hot seat. Front office included; they could all be gone if they don’t get this right. Do they really want to hitch their wagon to Dalton? Use a fraction of those picks you would give away for Wilson and grab Fields.
For more on Fields, check out our scouting report here.
1:12: Philadelphia Eagles: Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
Is there an absolute soul that can guess what the Eagles are up to? The Eagles organization has quickly become one of the bigger disasters in the NFL. With an owner that is too heavily involved in analytics and making this purely an analytical team, I would expect them to take one of the most athletic cornerback prospects since 1987. That could be Surtain or Horn, and obviously, Surtain is off the board. The Eagles need a cornerback with dominant traits. They play Terry McLaurin, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Kenny Golladay twice a year.
1:13: Detroit Lions (via Chargers): DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
Dan Campbell in the kneecap jokes will never get old. Campbell is deadly serious when he says he wants kneecap biters; the philosophy is real. Smith is a player that will not scare you during pre-game, but he is a long strider who eats up space and will compete in the run game. Despite his size, he plays the game hard. Smith fits Jared Goff‘s strengths in the short to intermediate areas of the field, and the Lions already have field stretchers in Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams.
1:14: Minnesota Vikings: Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Miami
Throw last year out of the window. That wasn’t a Mike Zimmer defense. They were bullied and depleted at every level of the field. Everyone will argue that they need an offensive tackle, and that may be true, but Phillips has enormous upside as a pass rusher. Inserting Phillips would finally give this team some juice upfront, and it would help the secondary that wouldn’t have covered water if you asked them to. Vikings go edge rusher in round one and find offensive lineman as the draft moves on.
1:15: Carolina Panthers (via Patriots): Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
The Panthers spent every single pick in 2020 on defense. If they want to give Sam Darnold a chance, they need to find him a Curtis Samuel replacement, an offensive lineman, and a tight end. It would be malpractice to trade for Darnold and throw him behind that same offensive line that Teddy Bridgewater had to navigate. Darrisaw is a clean pass protector with quick sets and fluid feet. If there’s anything Darrisaw can do at a high level, it’s protecting his quarterback.
For more on Darrisaw, check out our scouting report here.
1:16: Arizona Cardinals: Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa
The player Cardinals fans need to keep an eye on his Collins. After reading through some tea leaves, it sounds like the Cardinals are one of the teams that view Collins as a 3-4 edge rusher. Obviously, teams spend most of their time in 4-2-5 situations, and the plan there would be to have Collins line up as a stack linebacker. In this scenario, Collins is the first off-ball linebacker off the board on those NFL Draft surprises that we need.
1:17: Las Vegas Raiders: Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC
Vera-Tucker is a versatile play that has been in the top-20 discussion for about a year. In 2020, he made the unselfish move of playing left tackle, and it did nothing but improve his stock. Kolton Miller has the left tackle spot locked down, but Vera-Tucker could win the job at any of the four other positions. Keep an eye on the Raiders as they select Vera-Tucker to play right tackle and create a solid tackle tandem for Derek Carr.
1:18: Miami Dolphins: Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan
The Dolphins would like to add an offensive lineman after selecting Waddle earlier in the round, but the value doesn’t present itself. That forces the Dolphins to switch gears and go defense. Many football evaluators will argue that the edge rusher is the second most important position in the league. Paye never had a ton of production, but he is a high character individual with many elite traits. The short-area burst and the explosive traits pop on tape.
1:19: Washington Football Team: Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
Jack Del Rio and Ron Rivera were both professional linebackers and valued the position dearly. They have three options and have been linked to all three options. Parsons, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, and Jamin Davis will all be talked about together for years. In this case, Parsons has the most natural ability, and pairing him with one of the best defensive lines in football makes it extra intriguing. Having Parsons blitz A-gaps and stunt with this set of defensive tackles would be a sight to see.
For more on Parsons, check out our scouting report here.
1:20: New York Giants (via Bears): Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
Ultimately, the Giants probably feel comfortable with a bunch of players. Paye, Phillips, Azeez Ojulari, Parsons, Owusu-Koramoah all make sense. After acquiring a haul of picks, the Giants still get to select Owusu-Koramoah. If you mold Jabrill Peppers and Blake Martinez, you get something similar to Owusu-Koramoah. The former Fighting Irish defender can play as a nickel defender, WILL linebacker, or overhang safety. He can cover down on big slot receivers like Lamb or run stunts and blitz like Jamal Adams. Keep an eye on the Giants as they look to catapult defense.
1:21: Indianapolis Colts: Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama
The Colts are always a wildcard. They seem to do something different every year, and it will never be easy to pick. This year, Leatherwood sneaks into the first round thanks to his versatility. Leatherwood’s quickness projects nicely to the inside, but he could stick at right tackle. The Colts need a right tackle and depth. Leatherwood’s versatility will provide both.
For more on Leatherwood, check out our scouting report here.
1:22: Tennessee Titans: Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern
The Titans could go with Elijah Moore, Rashod Bateman, or offensive line help, but Newsome is too good to pass up. Newsome is a good athlete but a better technician. You won’t find Newsome freelancing or gambling. The Titans lost Adoree Jackson and Malcolm Butler; both players will need to be replaced. Getting A.J. Brown a partner to run with is a priority, but the value is hard to pass up in this situation.
1:23 New York Jets: Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss
The former teammate of Brown and D.K. Metcalf continues to generate buzz. Moore seems to have a number of teams interested in the first round. The Jets just spent their second overall pick on Wilson, a player that screams volatile. He has this whip-like arm motion and prefers to throw off-schedule and off-platform. He will need weapons and guys that match the style of play. Moore can dominate with manufactured touches or off-schedule plays. Explosive players mesh well with quarterbacks that have explosive traits.
For more on Moore, check out our scouting report here.
1:24: Pittsburgh Steelers: Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State
The former Cowboy is one of the nastier offensive linemen in the class. He plays smashmouth football, and that would fit well in Pittsburgh. All of the draft pundits have the Steelers running back even though they need offensive lineman and defensive backs. Keep an eye on Jenkins to be selected as the cornerstone of their running game, rather than an actual first-round running back. It would be a wise move.
1:25: Jacksonville Jaguars: Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
James Robinson had a remarkable season last year, but the Jaguars have a new Sherrif in town. Much like the Jets, surrounding Lawrence with weapons is a priority. Throwing a quarterback in the mix without a plethora of weapons could cause a stunt in their growth. Many fans will pick this one apart, but pairing Etienne with Lawrence and Robinson could make one of the most dynamic young backfields in the entire league.
1:26: Atlanta Falcons (via Cleveland Browns): Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
Smith pretty much elevated his coaching career by building around a dominant running back in Derrick Henry. Although from the same school, Harris is different. Harris thrived running some zone concepts and can run power-gap concepts, too. Harris also brings a little bit to the receiving game and could contribute from many looks. Keep an eye on Smith and the Falcons to remain aggressive in building a dominant offense.
1:27: Baltimore Ravens: Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU
The Ravens notoriously scream the best player available or trade back. Eric DeCosta would like to gain more picks, but Moehrig is too good to pass up. Moehrig is the consensus best safety, and the Ravens could upgrade from DeShon Elliott on the backend. Moehrig is physical, instinctive, and can play a variety of coverages. You can play Moehrig in single-high situations or two-high and let him cover from the top down. The Ravens steal Moehrig at pick 27.
For more on Moehrig, check out our scouting report here.
1:28: Green Bay Packers: Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
Will the Packers finally consult Aaron Rodgers before taking this pick? He earned that right years ago. I think Rodgers wants another pass-catcher to make his life easier. Bateman stands out because he has a release package like Davante Adams. There were questions about Adams’ play speed in college, and now you hear the same with Bateman. Could Bateman have that type of trajectory? There is merit to thinking that way. Bateman and Adams would be quite the duo for the Packers.
1:29: New Orleans Saints: Jamin Davis, LB, Kentucky
Davis is a bit of a one-year wonder, but the natural traits are there for the taking. He is arguably one of the best athletes in the class, and it shows up from sideline to sideline. When you watch him drop into coverage, his hips and lower body flexion look like a defensive back. Davis also has ball skills that you will have a hard time finding at the position. The Saints have a depleted linebacker room, and inserting Davis inserts upside.
1:30: Buffalo Bills: Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia
The former Georgia cornerback and high school teammate of Surtain, Campbell is reportedly flying up draft boards. Campbell has the build to become a dominant press-corner and can open his hips and play Cover-3 or Cover-4. A player with that type of scheme versatility is hard to find, and when you pair it with his elite athletic profile, you can find the merit to selecting him in round one.
For more on Campbell, check out our scouting report here.
1:31: Baltimore Ravens: Joe Tryon, EDGE, Washington
Tryon has elite traits that you can’t coach. There will be several teams salivating to get this guy to have their coaches mold those traits. After opting out of the 2020 season, you have a raw player that hasn’t played football in over a year. That could cause teams to hesitate, but the great coaching staff could mold this player into the next great Ravens pass rusher.
1:32: Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jayson Oweh, EDGE, Penn State
Mock drafters need to find a way to get Oweh in the first round. Someone will bet on the traits; you can’t predict them. The Buccaneers are a wild card, as are many teams in this stage of the first round. However, they do need to prepare for the loss of Jason Pierre-Paul, and Oweh could be that guy. Oweh is a strong and explosive edge rusher with a quick first step. A defensive line coach may need to mold some of the physical traits into football traits, but he is a first-round profile.
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