greatdepression
There are two big historical events that took place in 1929. One was the beginning of the Great Depression. The other was the gigantic stock crash that began on Black Friday. Pretty much everyone believes that they were related in some way. It would be too much of a coincidence for these two massive economic developments to take place at the same time strictly by chance. But I do not believe that until now we have possessed a clear understanding of the connection. Robert Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research of 1981 showing that valuations affect long-term returns greatly clarifies things. Q1...
ValueWalk
If you lived through the 2008 recession, you know how painful recessions can be. Even if you didn’t personally lose your job or home, you likely knew more than one person who did. The effects of that recession lasted long after the period was declared over. Many Millennials cite its knock-on effects as the reason they haven’t purchased a home or started a family, even to this day. As bad as recessions are, depressions are even worse. You could generally describe the latter as dramatic pauses in economic activity, and they’re much rarer. The U.S. has only experienced one depression throughout i...
ValueWalk
Today, many Americans have faced the realities of bad monetary and economic policies that have crippled household budgets. Additionally, the US is facing the highest inflation rates in over 40 years and is now entering stagflation. In recent economic news, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% month-to-month (MoM) and to 8.2% year-over-year (YoY). In mid-2022, the Federal Reserve reversed its monetary policy and began to contract the money supply to curb inflation. Q3 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Find A Qualified Financial AdvisorEach advisor has been vetted by SmartAsset a...
ValueWalk
Global stock markets are at a record high. The S&P/TSX Composite Index touched 20,000 for the first time in June this year. Such events usually occur when macroeconomic indicators are strong, corporate profits and wages are rising, and there is no political or geopolitical upheaval to create any roadblock in the way of economic growth. Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more In contrast, macroeconomic indicators are in the red. Employment in Canada has yet to reach its pre-pandemic level, and the economy contracted in the second quarter of 2021. Inflation is rising, and wage growth is...
ValueWalk
The recent change in momentum back to growth investing has naysayers questioning whether the prior two quarters were the extent of the value rally. As economic growth reached a crescendo this spring from the combined impact of recovery and stimulus, the value skeptics reemerged. This is how it always feels as a value investor – almost no one believes value will work until it already has. Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Believing In Value InvestingI’ve been a value investor my entire life. Someone asked me recently how I came to believe in value, and I explained that it really ...
ValueWalk
The South Sea Bubble in 1720. The Great Depression Bubble in 1929. The Dot-com Bubble in 2000. The Housing Bubble in 2008. History shows us that emerging markets get into serious trouble when big bubbles burst. Billions are lost while fortunes are made. Many analysts believe we are on the verge of another epic bubble in financial history. And it’s getting ready to pop. Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Dubbed “The Everything Bubble”, the market is once again showing the familiar characteristics of a bubble. Global debt has ballooned to 365% of GDP. Bitcoin has risen over 300%. R...
ValueWalk
I see one-third of a nation ill-housed, ill-clad, ill-nourished. — President Franklin D. Roosevelt, January 20, 1937 Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The Change In American LifestyleThe lifestyles of poor, near-poor, and working-class Americans have greatly improved since the depths of the Great Depression. Indeed, long lines of people waiting to be fed in soup kitchens have been replaced by mile-long lines of families in cars, waiting hours for cartons of food. Today huge numbers of Americans sleep in vermin infested homeless shelters, bus and train stations and terminals, pub...
ValueWalk
Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it. – George Santayana Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and moreWhen President Franklin Roosevelt took office during the depths of the Great Depression, he knew that the times called for extremely drastic action. During a period of just one hundred days, he shepherded through Congress a massive government spending program which created jobs for millions of the unemployed.Four years later, when our economic recovery still had a long way to go, Roosevelt reverted to that old-time-balance-the-budget-religion, and our economy quickl...
ValueWalk
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