silver
Silverspotpriset (XAGUSD) anses ofta vara det “dåliga förhållandet” mellan guld som en fristadsaktie och har nyligen lyst av sig självt. Spotpriset för XAGUSD har stigit nästan 4 % idag hittills, runt 3,8 %, till över 30,80 USD per troy ounce. Faktum är att silverpriset har stigit med mer än 31 % hittills i år och över 16 % den senaste månaden. Detta är ännu mer ett rally än spotpriset för guld (XAUUSD), som hittills har ökat någonstans i området 13,5 % i år hittills, och mindre än 1 % under den senaste månaden, när denna artikel skrevs . SilverkulanSilver nådde ett flerårigt rekord den 20 maj...
Invezz - SV
Often considered the ‘poor relation’ of gold as a safe haven stock, the silver spot price (XAGUSD) has shone of its own accord recently. The XAGUSD spot price is up almost 4% today so far, at around 3.8%, to over $30.80 per troy ounce. In fact, silver’s price is up by more than 31% this year to date and over 16% in the past month. This is even more of a rally than the gold spot price (XAUUSD), which has so far increased somewhere in the region of 13.5% this year to date, and less than 1% in the past month, at the time of this article’s writing. The silver bulletSilver hit a multi-year high on ...
Invezz
This morning, the gold price hit a new record high during the Asian trading session. The precious metal rose to a spot price of almost $2450 in the early hours of Monday. The XAU USD price went from $2425.51 to almost $2441 in under 15 minutes at 1am, Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). Why has gold hit a new high?The XAU USD price is known to be linked to geopolitical tensions, with rising conflict on the world stage often meaning that investors retreat to the ‘safe harbor’ gold is perceived as. Tensions certainly arose over the weekend when it was reported that the helicopter carrying Iranian ...
Invezz
As the white metal hangs on for dear life, the fundamentals continue to grow more ominous. Unveiling the RealityWhile silver has been a major beneficiary of the ‘bank crisis means rate cuts’ narrative, this is 2021/2022 all over again. When the crowd attempts to front-run a recession, it negates the recession due to the stimulative effect of lower long-term interest rates. That’s why sentiment surrounding silver has gone from euphoric to catastrophic several times over the last two years, and we believe another shift should occur over the next several months. To that point, not only have rate-...
ValueWalk
As anxiety grips the white metal, is a retest of the 2023 lows or highs more likely? There is a misnomer in the financial markets that inflation is a supply-side phenomenon. In a nutshell: COVID-19 restrictions, labor shortages, and manufacturing disruptions are the reasons for inflation’s reign. As such, when these issues are no longer present, inflation will normalize and the U.S. economy will enjoy a “soft landing.” However, investors’ faith in the narrative will likely lead to plenty of pain over the medium term…. U.S. households have nearly $3.89 trillion in their checking accounts. For c...
ValueWalk
After a brief rally, U.S. nonfarm payrolls helped suppress silver’s momentum. Is there more downside ahead? While the permabulls bought into the rate-cut hype, we warned on Apr. 14 that the fundamentals did not support their enthusiasm. We wrote: Market participants are pricing in ~60 basis points of rate cuts. If those cuts get priced out, the market impact is similar to the Fed raising the U.S. federal funds rate (FFR). No matter how you slice it, no cuts means the FFR stays higher for longer, and a realization should have a profound impact on the PMs….. Mining stocks are particularly vulner...
ValueWalk
After support became resistance, are lower prices ahead, or is this just a cooling-off period? To explain, the red line above tracks the daily copper futures price, while the gray line above tracks the daily silver futures price. If you analyze the relationship, you can see that the pair have largely moved in lockstep since late 2021. And with copper trading near its March lows, silver’s outperformance is likely living on borrowed time. To further emphasize the point, please see the pair’s relationship on the monthly chart: To explain, the box in the middle shows how when silver decoupled from...
ValueWalk
Should you buy the headline momentum? With bank-failure hysteria upending nearly all assets except the PMs, silver has benefited from the fear. And while basic accounting highlights how these issues are about short-term liquidity and not long-term solvency, investors continue to ride the momentum. Please see below: More importantly, the release highlights how wage inflation is far from a level that aligns with 2% output inflation. Please see below: To explain, the table above shows how the median change in annual pay for job-stayers and job-switchers was 6.7% and 13.2% in April. Moreover, ever...
ValueWalk
As other assets suffer, the white metal remains uplifted Anxiety caught up to investors on Apr. 20, as Bitcoin, the S&P 500 and crude oil showcased immense weakness. But, with the PMs assuming the fundamental issues don’t apply to them, silver largely brushed off its peers’ plight. Please see below: To explain, the candlesticks above track the weekly movement of the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), while the black line at the bottom tracks its weekly RSI. If you analyze the horizontal green line, you can see that weekly VIX RSI readings below 40 are rare over the last 10+ years. More importantly, ...
ValueWalk
With yield curve inversion (10Y < 2Y) the talk of the town in recent days, the narrative proclaims that a recession is imminent. But, that’s not what we see. For example, if you analyze the right side of the chart above, you can see that the 10-2 spread has surpassed -0.80% and is at its lowest level since the 1980s. As a result, the bond market is screaming recession. However, the three arrows in the middle show that the 10-2 spread moved from negative to positive before the last three recessions occurred. Q1 2023 hedge fund letters, conferences and more To that point, little has changed. Whi...
ValueWalk
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