On Monday, we released our latest Field of 64 projections with an in-depth look at how we expect college baseball’s NCAA Tournament to look. After taking a look at the regional hosting picture, it’s time to take a look at the bubble teams that are fighting for their spot in the tournament.
The bubble looks stronger this week than it has in recent weeks, but it’s surely an interesting group of teams. Of the four teams that made the NCAA Tournament as our “Last Four In,” three are from the Pac-12.
The most notable teams on the outside looking in are Florida and Texas. Florida entered the season ranked No. 2 in the country, while Texas came in at No. 16. Others have fought their way onto the bubble out of seemingly nowhere.
A lot can (and undoubtedly will) change over the next few weeks. Four weekends remain before conference tournaments get underway. But as of today, here is how we see the bubble.
NCAA Tournament Bubble: Last Four In
Oregon, Illinois-Chicago, Cal, Utah
Oregon is an interesting team, as they are currently 28-12 overall, 11-7 in the Pac-12 but sit just No. 63 in RPI. The Ducks are 17-5 in non-conference games with a non-conference RPI of No. 54. The path for Oregon is right in front of them. They are at Oregon State, a likely host, this weekend before returning home the following weekend to host fellow bubble team Utah. The Ducks then end at Washington and Washington State, two series they will be expected to win. Next weekend’s series against Utah is must-win, but Oregon has a clear path to being on the right side of the tournament bubble.
Illinois-Chicago has somewhat unexpectedly played their way onto the bubble. They are 23-12 and 9-6 in the MVC, with RPI at No. 53. UIC’s biggest issue moving forward is a lack of RPI opportunities. They have Purdue (RPI 69) in a midweek game in early May, but that’s their only top 100 RPI game left. UIC’s best RPI weekend left is at Evansville (RPI 109) in the last weekend of the regular season. If UIC keeps winning, which we expect them to, they’ll be right there in the mix.
Cal is on a roll right now, winning eight straight with back-to-back weekend sweeps over Washington State and Oregon State. They are 24-14 on the year and 11-10 in the Pac-12, sitting at No. 48 in RPI. The next two weekends will be important for Cal, as they are on the road for back-to-back series at Stanford and USC. Right now they are in, and if that RPI holds around where it is, they’ll have a good chance of getting in.
Utah is the final bubble team that made it in the tournament in our latest projections. The Utes are 26-12, 11-7 in the Pac-12 and No. 59 in RPI. Utah’s path is pretty simple. Just win. Their remaining weekends are vs. UCLA, at Oregon, vs. Arizona and at USC. That’s not an easy stretch, but it’s doable. If Utah takes care of business and ends the season strong, they’ll likely be in and maybe not even on the bubble by that point.
First Four Out
Florida, Boston College, Texas, Louisiana Tech
Florida has been one of the hardest teams to rank, or project, all season. The Gators’ midweek problems eventually carried over into the weekend, and now they’re barely .500 overall at 20-18, also 8-10 in the SEC and No. 35 in RPI. The RPI is strong enough to get in, and the Gators have some good series wins under their belt. But projecting forward, it could be a brutal finish. Florida’s final four weekends are at Arkansas, vs. Tennessee, vs. Kentucky and at Georgia. Simply put, we don’t think a sub-.500 team will make it in, and that could very well be where the Gators end up.
Louisiana Tech was maybe the hardest cut on the bubble in this week’s NCAA Tournament projections. They are 29-13 overall, 8-4 in Conference USA but No. 56 in RPI. That RPI is right on the fringe, and ideally it would get a little higher. Louisiana Tech’s remaining weekends are vs. Sam Houston State (RPI 76), at New Mexico State (RPI 196), vs. Western Kentucky (RPI 82) and at Liberty (RPI 142). If they win all of those series, ideally sweeping, they’ll be strongly in the mix. But a stumble, even a single loss, could be a RPI killer and push them out.
Boston College has some work to do, but they could play themselves into the mix. They are currently 20-19 overall, 7-14 in the ACC and No. 58 in RPI. That’s not good enough to get in today, but the path is there. Winning this weekend’s series at home vs. Virginia would go a long way, and they then host Louisville next weekend. Boston College ends the year at Clemson, which could give them one final opportunity to solidify their resume and get in the mix.
Texas is currently 24-17 overall, 11-7 in the Big 12 and No. 72 in RPI. The Big 12 feels pretty wide open, though, and the Longhorns are at Oklahoma and vs. Oklahoma State the next two weekends. Finishing the year at UCF and vs. Kansas, Texas just needs to win and they should be able to sneak in. If they stumble any more it could put them too far away from getting on the right side of the tournament bubble, but they could also very well play their way in.
Next Four Out
St. John’s, Maryland, Ole Miss, Georgia Tech
St. John’s has been right on the bubble for a while, and currently sits at 25-9-1 overall, 6-3 in the Big East and No. 65 in RPI. The next two weekends will be pivotal, going to Xavier (RPI 30) and Creighton (RPI 49), two other Big East teams that are fighting to solidify their spot in the field. St. John’s ends the year at Seton Hall and vs. Georgetown, though, so avoiding setbacks in those series could end up being what makes the difference.
Maryland is currently No. 46 in RPI, sitting at 25-16 overall and 6-9 in the Big Ten. The Terrapins have a couple of big weekends ahead, hosting Illinois and heading to Rutgers. If they are able to win those series and sweep Penn State in the final weekend, they could find themselves on the right side of the bubble. But right now, Maryland is just on the outside looking in.
In the final weekend of March, Georgia Tech (24-14, 9-9 in ACC, No. 57 in RPI) got swept at home by Boston College. Since then, they’ve rattled off three straight series victories over Pitt, Virginia Tech and Virginia. Now, the Yellow Jackets are on the bubble. They have four weekends left (vs. Miami, at Clemson, vs. Duke, at Florida State). If Georgia Tech can win two of those weekends, it might be enough.
Ole Miss has a tough path, but it’s a path nonetheless. The Rebels are 21-18 overall, 6-12 in the SEC but No. 24 in RPI. They end the season vs. Alabama, at Auburn, vs. Texas A&M and at LSU, and also have midweek opportunities against Mississippi State and Southern Miss. Ole Miss likely needs to get to at least 12-13 SEC wins, and a strong showing in Hoover would help too. But if that RPI stays that high, they’re going to remain on the bubble unless they completely fall off down the stretch.
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