Derby County can seal a historic return to the Championship this weekend as they face Carlisle United at Pride Park in their final match of the season.
The Rams are on the brink of promotion after a campaign filled with many twists and turns.
Paul Warne has managed to gain some consistency out of his team in his first full season in charge, adding a steely resistance that past promotion pushes have perhaps lacked.
With 45 matches of the campaign down and one to go, it’s in Derby’s hands to get a result against Carlisle in front of a sold out Pride Park Stadium.
“My message to the fans is to come along, wave the flags and get behind the lads,” the Derby County manager said in his pre-match press conference. “Hopefully, we can all go home happy.”
While any points gained will confirm promotion for the Rams, there is naturally a worst case scenario to plan for.
What needs to happen for Derby to gain League One promotion
The current gap between second and third is three points, with Bolton Wanderers the final team with a shout of making a late charge into the automatic promotion spots.
It means that avoiding defeat in the final game will confirm a return to the Championship for Warne, with a strong lineup expected for Derby against Carlisle.
However, if the Rams do stumble their way to defeat in the big clash, there is a set of permutations that will decide whether they will secure that final automatic promotion place ahead of Bolton.
The Wanderers would first have to win their final game away at Peterborough United, otherwise, they will be unable to reach second.
Should Ian Evatt manage to pick up a victory, the manager will then be looking for a goal difference swing in his favour.
Derby currently have a four-goal buffer on Bolton when it comes to goal difference, meaning that a four-goal swing is needed for the Wanderers to finish second.
As a result, even if Derby vs Carlisle does end up in favour of the away side, the home supporters could still celebrate promotion if the goal difference works in their favour.
It makes a drop into third unlikely but not totally out of the question, with Derby looking to avoid the lottery of the League One play-offs.
Bolton boss Ian Evatt’s Derby plan
Ian Evatt has revealed that he will be looking for his Bolton side to play their usual style of football against Peterborough but he is willing to go “gung-ho” if the Derby result is going in their favour.
Speaking to the press before the clash against Posh, the Bolton boss said: “Obviously we will get updates in the game and if we need to go a little more gung-ho because the goals need to come then that is something we can change in-game, but the approach is the same.
“We will play our way and try to win the game. If things don’t go our way then we continue with the momentum going into what’s to come.
“The most important thing is that we perform against one of our direct competitors. Peterborough have been very good this season, they have been right up there for the majority of it.”
Darren Ferguson’s Peterborough side are out of contention for a top-two finish, following defeat to Cheltenham Town in midweek, with a play-off route set to be traversed.
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