raydalio
Part 2 of a Two-Part Look at: 1. Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises, and 2. How These Principles Apply to What’s Happening Now If we don’t agree on how things work, we won’t be able to agree on what’s happening or what is likely to happen. For that reason I like to begin by describing how I believe things work to see if we can agree on that. Q4 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more That more comprehensive description was laid out in my book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order. I hope you will examine my description of the cause/effect relationships that drive ho...
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A Two-Part Look at: 1. Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises, and 2. How They Apply to What’s Happening Now Now that we are at the beginning of a new year, it seems appropriate to review the timeless and universal mechanics of money and debt cycles and the principles for dealing with them, and then to apply these to what’s happening now. I will do the first of these today and the second in a week or two. Q4 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Principles For Navigating Big Debt CrisesIn this post, I am giving a highly condensed version of what I described in my book Principles for...
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It Starts With Inflation: How Inflation, Interest Rates, Markets, and Economic Growth Relate to Each Other and What That Means for What’s Ahead In this post a) I will very briefly explain how I believe the economic machine that determines inflation, interest rates, market prices, and economic growth rates works, and b) work with you to apply current circumstances to that machine to come up with our expectations for the future. Q2 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more How It WorksOver the long term, living standards rise because of people inventing ways to get more value out of a day's ...
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Unfortunately, what is happening now between the US and China over Taiwan is following the classic path to war laid out in my book “Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order.” If events continue to follow this path, this conflict will have a much larger global impact than the Russia-Ukraine war because it is between the world’s leading superpowers that are economically much larger and much more intertwined. Q2 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more For reasons previously explained, the Russia-Ukraine war is minor by comparison, though the two conflicts are related and the Rus...
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The case at hand is that of Mario Draghi and Italy. It’s “another one of those” classic cases in which a country’s lack of discipline and fragmented leadership have led to a combination of 1) excessive debts and 2) a lot of internal conflict. Italy is also in 3) a big external conflict relating to the Ukrainian-Russia war. Together these forces make Italy vulnerable to a debt/financial crisis and de facto anarchy. In my template for a cycle of internal orders and disorders set out in Chapter 5 of my book, Italy classically is in stage 4 of the cycle. This case isn’t just interesting in how it ...
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Q1 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Inflation Is The Big ProblemMore specifically, I now hear it commonly said that inflation is the big problem so the Fed needs to tighten to fight inflation, which will make things good again once it gets inflation under control. I believe this is both naïve and inconsistent with how the economic machine works. That’s because that view only focuses on inflation as the problem and it sees Fed tightening as a low-cost action that will make things better when inflation goes away, but it’s not like that. The facts are that: 1) prices rise when the am...
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Ray Dalio Releases Inaugural Edition Of Annual Global “Power Score” IndexBased on the research described in his recently released and latest New York Times Bestseller — Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail (Changing World Order) — famed investor and author Ray Dalio today announced the release of the inaugural edition of his new Country Power Score Index (“Power Score”). The index shows levels of 18 different types of strengths and combines them into an aggregate measure of power for the top 24 countries. Besides being able to compare countries’ st...
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Following are excerpts from the unofficial transcript of a CNBC interview with Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates Founder, Co-Chief Investment Officer and Member of the Board, on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” (M-F, 6AM-9AM ET) today, Tuesday, May 24th live from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. ‘Cash Is Still Trash,’ Says Bridgewater Associates’ Ray DalioDalio On SellingThe federal reserve is going to sell, individuals are selling, foreigners are selling, and the U.S. government is selling because it has to fund its deficit. So there’s going to be a supply/demand problem, that means that it...
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Following is the unofficial transcript of a CNBC interview with Bridgewater Associates Founder Ray Dalio on CNBC’s “Closing Bell” (M-F, 3PM-5PM ET) today, Thursday, January 6. Following is a link to video on CNBC.com: Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The Problem With Tightening Policy Is Interest Rate Sensitivity, Says Ray DalioPart ISARA EISEN: The money printing and debt binge that the world's governments and central banks have embarked on to prop up their economies is one of the three main themes that Ray Dalio takes on in his study of the last 500 years in his new book, “Pr...
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The following is an excerpt of John Donvan’s interview with Ray Dalio from the Intelligence Squared podcast, they discuss being open minded for decision making. Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more John Donvan: Do you think there's that there's a trend in being open minded?Ray Dalio: I think we're moving badly to it. I think you can see that in the in the nature of the decision making, when the cause that people are behind is more important than the system for resolving disagreement. The system is in jeopardy. And I think that you when you look at it right now, people are screaming...
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