The big question continues to loom over the 2024 race: Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s run pull more votes from Joe Biden or Donald Trump?
Pundits and polls have swung back and forth on the matter. But increasingly, recent polling has shown Kenndey could do more damage to Trump and that the former president and Kennedy attract the same voters.
The latest was in a Marist poll that showed Biden beating Trump 43%-38% in a multi-candidate field that includes Kennedy. That’s five percentage points ahead of Trump, compared to the 2 percentage point advantage he had over Trump in an earlier survey.
Anotherpoll from NBC News showed similar results.
Trump beats Biden in a two-person race by 2 points, according to the poll. But in a five-way ballot that also included Kennedy, Biden leads by 2 points.
Earlier this month, a former state director for Kennedy all but said outright that Kennedy would be a spoiler for Trump in a video that urged New Yorkers, and voters in other deep blue states, to vote for Kennedy in an effort to help Trump:
“Bobby’s moving the blues on his own. If the Republicans just accepted the fact that New York, Maryland, Illinois, California, New Jersey, Connecticut, most of the northeast, is going to go blue, why wouldn’t we put our vote to Bobby and at least get rid of Biden and get those 28 electoral votes in New York … (and) give those 28 electoral votes to Bobby rather than to Biden, thereby reducing Biden’s 270,” the staffer, Rita Palma, said.
If nobody gets to 270, then Congress picks the president. So who are they going to pick, who are they going to pick if it’s a Republican Congress? They’ll pick Trump. So we’re rid of Biden either way. Does everyone follow that?”
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Matt Arco may be reached at marco@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter at @MatthewArco.
